Bragantino vs Grêmio: match statistics

Bragantino have a clear home advantage: they win 45% of their home matches, score an average of 1.45 goals and create chances worth 1.72 xG per game. Grêmio are yet to win away from home, losing 64% of their matches, scoring just 0.55 goals per game and failing to find the net in 45% of those fixtures. The hosts average 16.45 shots, including 4.64 on target, compared with 8.27 and 2.18 respectively for the visitors, indicating a significant difference in attacking control. Bragantino’s home defence limits opponents to just 0.98 xG and concedes an average of 1.00 goal, while Grêmio allow 1.52 xG and concede 1.55 goals away from home. Although the hosts have not been particularly effective in their last five matches, their home record and Grêmio’s away weakness point towards a Bragantino victory.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No does not come from Grêmio’s poor away scoring record: the team averages just 0.55 goals away from home and fails to score in 45% of such matches. Bragantino have also reduced their attacking output to 0.4 goals per game across their last five matches, with BTTS occurring in only 20% of those fixtures. During this period, Grêmio averaged 0.8 goals despite creating chances worth 1.56 xG, pointing to finishing problems. The hosts have greater attacking potential, averaging 5.0 shots on target compared with the opponent’s 2.18, which makes a Bragantino goal more likely than both teams scoring. The seasonal BTTS rates of 64% for Bragantino and 55% for Grêmio are positive, but the significantly weaker recent scoring form supports a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The strongest signal is Grêmio’s low attacking potential away from home, where the team averages just 0.55 goals and has not scored more than once in any match of this profile. Bragantino have also scored only 2 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.4 per game, with none of those five fixtures producing Over 2.5 goals. Historically, 73% of Bragantino’s matches and as many as 100% of Grêmio’s matches have ended with Under 3.5 goals, while the visitors have never gone above this line. The hosts create more chances, averaging 14.09 shots and 5.0 shots on target compared with Grêmio’s 8.27 and 2.18, respectively, but poor finishing in recent form limits the projection to 1.90 goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 has a clear edge, as a four-goal or higher scenario would require a significant deviation from both teams’ prevailing trends.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Bragantino win at full-time, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 55% of their matches, while the hosts had a half-time draw in all five of their last five games. The first half should be low-scoring: Bragantino average 0.55 goals before the break, compared with just 0.18 for Grêmio, while the visitors failed to score in the first half in 82% of their matches. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage increases significantly, as they average 1.09 goals compared with Grêmio’s 0.36, particularly between the 46th and 60th minutes, when they have scored seven goals. Across the season, Bragantino win 55% of their matches and average 1.91 points per game, whereas Grêmio have not won any away matches, lose 64% of the time and average just 0.36 points per game. Despite the visitors’ better recent form, their average of 0.55 goals scored away from home and 1.55 goals conceded supports the view that, after an evenly matched first half, the hosts will turn the result in their favour.