Brann vs Molde: match statistics

Molde sit 3rd and have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while ninth-placed Brann have won 2 and lost 3 over the same period. Molde scored 19 goals and conceded 6 across those five matches, giving them a clear edge over the hosts’ 9:10 goal difference. Away from home, Molde average 2 goals and 6.91 shots on target per match—more than Brann manage at home, with averages of 1.67 goals and 5.33 shots on target. The hosts do, however, have an edge in the quality of chances created: their home xG stands at 2.08, compared with Molde’s away xG of 1.89, while the visitors concede an average of 1.91 goals on the road. Molde are therefore the likeliest winners thanks to their current attacking form, although their vulnerable defence gives Brann a genuine chance of taking points.

Both teams frequently finish matches with goals at both ends: Brann in 69% of games and Molde in 82%, compared with the league average of 60%. Brann score an average of 2.69 goals at home, while Molde concede 1.91 away, strongly pointing to a home goal. The visitors average 2.00 goals away, while Brann concede 1.15 at home; Molde have also scored 19 goals in their last 5 matches. For both teams, 4 of their last 5 matches saw both sides score, making BTTS - Yes clearly the more likely pick.

Brann matches have gone over 1.5 goals in 85% of cases, compared with 91% of Molde matches, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal. Brann average 2.69 goals in the matches analyzed, while Molde concede 1.91; the visitors, in turn, score 2.00 goals, while the hosts concede 1.15. The attacking potential is reflected in both teams’ average xG of 1.89, with Molde allowing opponents chances worth 1.56 xG. In their last five matches, Brann and Molde scored an average of 1.8 and 3.8 goals respectively, while the Over 2.5 goals line landed in 80% and 100% of those games. Although the data also supports higher lines, Over 1.5 offers a clearer edge, with a projected total of 4.0 goals in the match.

The most likely scenario is Brann leading at the break and going on to win, as the hosts led at half-time in 62% of their home matches and won 69% of them. Brann concede an average of 0.54 goals in first halves, while Molde concede 1.09 on the road, which points to a home advantage before the break. Brann also have a strong case for holding onto their lead: they score an average of 1.54 goals after half-time and win the second half in 54% of cases. Molde’s recent form is a notable risk, however—the visitors led at half-time in four of their last five matches and scored an average of 3.8 goals in those games, compared with Brann’s 1.8. Despite this, Brann’s season-long home advantage in both half-time and full-time results makes 1/1 the strongest single pick.