Bugesera vs Etincelles: match statistics
Bugesera vs Etincelles: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Bugesera played Etincelles in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
Bugesera: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Etincelles: 0-5-0, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Bugesera scores 1.00 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Etincelles scores 0.72 and concedes 1.08. League average: 2.07 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Bugesera 48%, Etincelles 56%. Over 2.5: Bugesera 44%, Etincelles 24%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 35%.
xG, shots and style
Etincelles has higher xG: 1.20 vs 0.97. Bugesera: 5.8 shots per match, Etincelles: 7.7.
Match halves
Bugesera: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 0.72. Etincelles: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.32.
Goals by minute
Bugesera: 61-75 (7 goals). Etincelles: 31-45+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National Soccer League: 2.07 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 35%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (1). Bugesera averages 1.13 goals scored and concedes 0.93 per home match, holds a 47% home win rate and a positive home goal difference of +3; over the last 5 matches overall they have form dwwwl and average 2 points per game. Etincelles on the road score just 0.83 goals per match, concede 1.25, have only an 8% away win rate and 13 draws in the season, and their last 5 matches produced 5 draws (ddddd). The visitors attempt more shots away (7.83 vs 5.93) and have a higher xG (1.14 vs 0.96), but convert only 11% of attempts versus the home side’s 19%, indicating poorer finishing. The gap in clean sheets at home (40% for hosts vs 17% for guests) and the hosts’ superior recent form (2 points average vs 1 for the visitors) argue for a home victory; therefore I assign 60% to a home win, 30% to a draw and 10% to an away upset.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The numbers indicate this is not a typical BTTS fixture: Bugesera averages 0.62 goals per match, Etincelles 0.83, totalling only 1.45 goals per game, below the league average of 2.08. This season the BTTS rate is 46% for Bugesera and 67% for Etincelles, but in the last 5 matches Bugesera had BTTS in only 20% (1/5) and Etincelles in 60% (3/5), which favors a No Goal scenario. Bugesera keeps a clean sheet in 31% of matches, Etincelles in 17%; both teams have conceded an average of 0.6 goals in their last 5 games, suggesting a low-goal affair. xG shows both teams create chances (xG 1.27 for Bugesera vs 1.14 for Etincelles), but actual goals are much lower (0.62 and 0.83), so poor finishing increases the likelihood of 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1 outcomes. Based on these figures I recommend 'BTTS - No' with a probability of 60% versus 40% for 'BTTS - Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The forecast is based on average xG: Bugesera has xG_for 1.27, while Etincelles' defense shows xG_against 1.32 — their average yields ~1.30 expected goals for the home side; Etincelles has xG_for 1.14 against the home defense xG_against 1.08, giving ~1.11 for the visitors, totaling 2.41 expected goals. Seasonal actual goals are lower (Bugesera 0.62, Etincelles 0.83), but the combined xG of 2.41 is above the league average of 2.08, indicating greater scoring potential than raw stats suggest. Seasonal over 1.5 rates are 54% (home) and 75% (away), reinforcing the signal for Over 1.5 goals, whereas Over 2.5 occurs rarely (23%/25%), so Over 2.5 is less likely. Additionally, Bugesera averages 9.18 shots and 3.27 on target, while Etincelles averages 7.83 and 2.67 with conversion rates of 7% vs 11%, which supports a realistic chance of at least two goals. On this basis the best market to play is Over 1.5 (estimated probability ~69%), while Over 2.5 is only ~43% and does not provide as strong a signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Both teams frequently finish matches level: Bugesera have 46% draws this season, Etincelles 58%, and Etincelles have recorded 5 draws in their last 5 matches (100%), which strongly points to a draw outcome. At halftime the play is low-scoring — Bugesera average 0.38 goals by the break, Etincelles 0.42, and Bugesera have kept a clean sheet at halftime in 77% of matches, which increases the likelihood of a goalless or low-scoring first half (combined average goals at the break in the last 5 matches is ~0.6). Full-time attacking metrics are also similar: season xG is 1.27 for Bugesera versus 1.14 for Etincelles, and season goals per game are 0.62 vs 0.83, so I expect a tight match without a clear dominator. Bugesera are in better form over the last 5 matches (averaging 2.0 points per game and 60% wins), so if there is a decision it is more often on the home side; Etincelles however have not lost in their last 5 (0 defeats, 100% draws), which keeps the draw market priced highly. Therefore I assign the highest probability to a draw at halftime and a draw at full-time (X/X 33%), with a secondary signal of draw at half / home win at full (X/1 18%) as a realistic alternative.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Bugesera | Etincelles | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.46 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Bugesera is 100% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Bugesera · 1 pts / match - Etincelles
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Bugesera is 39% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Bugesera · 0.72 goals / match - Etincelles
Bugesera is 8% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Bugesera · 1.08 goals / match - Etincelles
Bugesera scores in 68% of matches (17 of 25 matches), while Etincelles keeps a clean sheet in 24% (6 of 25 matches).
Etincelles scores in 60% of matches (15 of 25 matches), while Bugesera keeps a clean sheet in 40% (10 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Bugesera
Over / Under - Etincelles
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Etincelles is 58% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.76 pts / match - Bugesera · 1.2 pts / match - Etincelles
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Bugesera - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Etincelles - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 12%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Bugesera
Etincelles
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| Bugesera | Liga | Etincelles | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.00 | 2.07 | ▼ 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 48% | 45% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 44% | 35% | ▼ 24% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 40% | 34% | ▼ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 62% | ▼ 56% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 72% | 70% | ▼ 64% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Bugesera 1 - 0 - 0 Etincelles. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Bugesera vs Etincelles?
The National Soccer League match finished Bugesera 3:0 Etincelles. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Bugesera vs Etincelles?
Bugesera score 1.00 goals per game on average and Etincelles 0.72. The National Soccer League average is 2.07 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 35% of games. Both teams score in 48% of Bugesera's matches and 56% of Etincelles's.
What form are Bugesera and Etincelles in?
Over the last 5 games Bugesera have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Etincelles 0-5-0 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Bugesera vs Etincelles?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.