Busan I'Park vs Gimhae City: match statistics

Busan I'Park sit higher in the table in 6th place, while Gimhae City are 17th, and over the course of the season the hosts have won 11 matches compared with just 2 victories for the visitors. At home, Busan average 1.58 goals and 4.5 shots on target per match, whereas Gimhae score only 0.83 goals away from home and register 3.42 shots on target. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 1.42, while the visitors generate 1.15 xG, and Gimhae also allow opponents 1.72 xG. Both teams are in poor recent form, with Busan winless in their last 5 matches and Gimhae losing 3 of their last 5, while the visitors’ defence has conceded 9 goals during this period. Busan win 50% of their league home matches, whereas Gimhae lose 50% of their away fixtures, making a home win the most likely outcome.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are indeed elevated, particularly for Busan I'Park at 73% compared with Gimhae City's 58%, but current attacking form clearly weakens this signal. In their last 5 matches, both teams recorded BTTS in only 40% of games, scoring an average of just 0.4 and 0.6 goals per match, respectively. Busan have kept no clean sheets this season and concede an average of 2.36 goals, giving Gimhae a realistic chance of scoring; however, the visitors themselves average only 0.83 goals per match. The xG from the last five appearances stands at 1.45 for the hosts and 1.41 for the visitors, but the low conversion rate, confirmed by the actual goal totals, suggests a risk that at least one side will fail to take its chances. Therefore, BTTS - No is slightly more likely, meaning that at least one team is expected not to score.

The xG profile suggests chances at both ends: the home side creates an average of 1.43 xG, while opponents concede 1.72 xG, whereas the visitors record 1.15 xG with 1.75 xG conceded by Busan. At the same time, both teams’ finishing efficiency has been poor in their last five matches, with Busan averaging 0.4 goals and Gimhae City 0.6 goals per game. Over the same period, the hosts’ matches went Over 2.5 goals in only 20% of cases, compared with 40% for the visitors, despite Gimhae’s defence conceding an average of 1.8 goals. Neither team regularly scores at least two goals per game during the season, which limits the risk of a four-goal outcome. The strongest pick is therefore Under 3.5 goals, supported by a projected total of 2.45 goals and a 75% probability.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as Busan were level at the break in 45% of their matches and Gimhae in 33%, with very low average first-half scoring figures: 0.36 goals for the hosts and 0.25 for the visitors. Current form further supports this outcome: Busan were level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches, Gimhae in 3 of 5, and neither team led at the break during this period. Both sides have struggled to convert chances, averaging only 0.82 and 0.83 goals per match this season, and 0.4 and 0.6 goals respectively across their last five games. Although Busan have conceded as many as 2.36 goals per match over the season, their recent defence has allowed an average of just 0.8 goals, while Gimhae have failed to win any of their last five matches. In the second halves of their last five outings, both teams have also frequently drawn, in 80% and 60% of cases respectively, supporting the expectation that the balance will be maintained until the final whistle.