Buxoro vs Andijan: match statistics

Buxoro are favorites primarily because of their home record: they have won 73% of their home matches, while Andijan have lost 50% of their away games. The hosts average 1.73 goals scored and 0.91 conceded at home, while the visitors score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per away game. Buxoro also have the edge in attacking efficiency, averaging 4.73 shots on target per home match compared with Andijan’s 3.3 away, with the latter failing to score in half of those games. However, the quality of chances created is similar, with xG figures of 1.33 and 1.30 respectively, so the hosts’ advantage is not clear-cut. Recent form also calls for caution: Buxoro have won just 1 of their last 5 matches and conceded 11 goals in that run, while Andijan have recorded 2 wins and conceded 10 goals.

Over the course of the season, both teams scored in 42% of Buxoro’s matches and 30% of Andijan’s matches, both below the league average of 55%. Particularly significant is that Andijan failed to score in 50% of its matches, while Buxoro kept a clean sheet in 42%. Recent form calls for caution, however: both teams scored in 100% of Buxoro’s and 60% of Andijan’s last five matches, while the hosts conceded an average of 2.2 goals. Despite this shift, Andijan’s season scoring rate of 1.1 goals per match compared with Buxoro’s 1.33 makes it marginally more likely that at least one team will fail to score (BTTS - No).

Buxoro score an average of 1.33 goals per match, while Andijan concede 1.40; the hosts also have a higher attacking xG, at 1.58 compared with the visitors’ 1.30. Buxoro’s last five matches averaged 4.0 goals, while Andijan’s averaged 3.2, strengthening the case for at least two goals. The Over 1.5 goals line has landed in 75% of Buxoro’s matches and 60% of Andijan’s. At the same time, both teams have finished at least 80% of their matches Under 3.5 goals, so higher goal lines offer a weaker signal than Over 1.5. With a projected total of 2.75 goals, Over 1.5 is the most likely pick.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Buxoro were level at the break in 67% of their matches, and both teams average few first-half goals—0.33 and 0.30, respectively. After the break, the home side’s advantage becomes clearer: they average 1.0 goals compared with Andijan’s 0.8, and their second-half results ended in a win in 57% of matches, versus 40% for the visitors. Buxoro’s higher average xG, 1.58 compared with 1.30, and greater number of shots on target, 4.5 versus 3.3 per match, also support a full-time home win. However, caution is warranted: over their last five matches, the hosts averaged 0.8 points and the visitors 1.4. Therefore, a draw at half-time followed by a Buxoro win is the strongest single HT/FT pick, but it is not a clear-cut favourite.