Cacahuatique vs Águila: match statistics

Cacahuatique have the better record over their last five matches: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, while Águila have won just once, drawn twice and suffered 2 defeats. The hosts are highly effective at home, averaging 3 goals per match and converting 40% of their shots, while scoring 11 goals in their last five games. Águila do create plenty of chances away from home, with an average xG of 2.05 and 17 shots per match, but they are yet to score an away goal despite averaging 6 shots on target. The visitors’ defence appears solid, having kept a clean sheet and conceded an average of 0 goals away from home, although this is based on a very small sample, as is Cacahuatique’s high average of 3 goals conceded at home. The hosts’ advantage in current finishing efficiency and their stronger results trend point to a narrow victory, although the high quality of Águila’s chances clearly increases the risk of a draw.

Cacahuatique has recorded BTTS in 100% of its matches so far, while in the last five games it has averaged 2.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Águila managed only 0.6 goals per match during this period, but the hosts allowed their opponents a high 2.02 xG, significantly increasing the visitors’ chances of finding the net. Águila’s attack is also generating a solid 2.05 xG and averaging 17 shots, including 6 on target, while Cacahuatique has failed to keep a clean sheet in any match. The main risk to the pick is Águila’s 100% rate of matches without scoring in the available seasonal data; however, their recent 40% BTTS rate and the hosts’ weak defense shift the forecast slightly toward BTTS - Yes.

Cacahuatique averaged 2.2 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while also conceding 2.0, with matches featuring at least three goals accounting for 60% of this sample. Águila scored just 0.6 goals per game over the same period and conceded 1.2, although their average xG in the current match-up stands at a high 2.05. The home side generates an average of 1.58 xG across their last five appearances, while the visitors allow opponents 1.45 xG, supporting a home-team return of around 1-2 goals. Despite Águila’s attacking potential, their 0.6 goals per game in the latest run and only 40% of matches going Over 2.5 goals suggest that an open, four-goal game should not be expected. The Under 3.5 goals line has the edge, as the projected total of 2.80 goals leaves a clear margin below the four-goal threshold.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Cacahuatique victory at the final whistle, as the hosts were level at the break in 40% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Águila. Águila failed to score a single first-half goal during this period and went into half-time trailing in as many as 40% of their matches, which limits the visitors’ chances of taking an early lead. After the break, Cacahuatique score an average of 1.4 goals, while Águila average 0.6, and the hosts recorded 2.2 goals per match across their last five games, compared with 0.6 for their opponents. The hosts won 40% of those matches, compared with just 20% for Águila, although the threat posed by the visitors’ higher xG—2.05 versus 1.00—must be taken into account. Cacahuatique’s superior efficiency and stronger second-half performances support a turnaround after a level first half.