Caen vs Aubagne: match statistics

Caen are clear favourites: they won their only home match so far, scoring 4 goals without conceding, and currently sit 4th in the table. The hosts average 12 shots per game, 6 of them on target, while enjoying 61% possession—factors that should allow them to control the match for long periods. Caen have scored 14 goals and recorded 3 wins in their last five matches, whereas Aubagne have managed just 1 win and suffered 3 defeats over the same period. The visitors are 18th, have lost both league matches without scoring, and conceded 9 goals in their last five fixtures. Although Caen have allowed opponents to score 10 times in their last five matches, the hosts’ attacking superiority and Aubagne’s poor start point towards a home win.

Recent form clearly supports goals from both sides: Caen recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Aubagne did so in 60%. The hosts averaged 2.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded during this period, whereas the visitors scored 1.2 goals and conceded 1.8 per match. Aubagne’s potential to score is further strengthened by their average xG of 0.90, while Caen allow opponents 1.41 xG. In turn, Caen create an average of 1.15 xG, and Aubagne’s defence allows opponents 1.50 xG, so the hosts should also find a way to score. The low league BTTS rate of 33% reduces confidence in the pick, but the current numbers for both teams provide a stronger signal for a Goal/Goal scenario.

Caen’s last five matches produced an average of 4.8 goals, with the team scoring 2.8 and conceding 2.0 per game. Aubagne’s matches were also open, averaging 3.0 goals, with the visitors scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.8 per match. The 2.5 line was surpassed in 100% of Caen’s last five appearances and in 60% of Aubagne’s matches, although lower xG figures of 1.15 and 0.90 limit confidence in a high Over. The strongest pick remains Over 1.5, as both defenses have recently allowed 1.41 and 1.50 xG respectively, clearly supporting a scenario with at least two goals.

Caen have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.8 goals during this period, while Aubagne have won just once, scoring 1.2 goals and conceding 1.8 per match. The hosts have looked particularly strong after the break, averaging 1.8 goals compared with Aubagne’s 0.4; the visitors have also failed to score after half-time in 80% of their last five appearances. Caen led at the break in 40% of this sequence, the same percentage as Aubagne, but the hosts’ greater attacking efficiency, combined with a 60% win rate compared with the visitors’ 20%, supports the expectation that they will hold on to their lead. The risk is increased by Caen’s limited available home sample, with an average xG of 0.71 and 1.85 xG conceded, meaning scenarios involving an Aubagne turnaround still retain a significant probability. Nevertheless, the most likely outcome remains a scenario in which Caen take the lead before half-time and go on to secure the victory.