Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints: match statistics

The New Saints are unbeaten after four league matches, with a record of 3 wins and 1 draw, and have yet to concede a goal, while Caernarfon Town have lost 2 of their last 5 games. The visitors create significantly more high-quality chances: their average away xG stands at 2.46 compared with the hosts’ 1.45, while they allow opponents just 0.47 xG versus Caernarfon’s 1.22. The New Saints’ superiority is also evident in their control of the game, as they average 68% possession and 19 shots per match, compared with the hosts’ 56% possession and 12 attempts. Caernarfon average 2 goals scored at home and have found the net in every home match, but the visitors’ perfect clean-sheet record and 0 goals conceded in their last 5 appearances clearly strengthen the case for a The New Saints win.

The strongest signal comes from The New Saints’ defense: in their last 5 matches, the team has conceded no goals, while their average xG allowed to opponents is just 0.76. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far, and BTTS has not landed in any of their games, while Caernarfon have recorded BTTS in only 40% of their last five appearances. Caernarfon have recently averaged 1.6 goals scored, but created just 1.23 xG, which clearly contrasts with the opponents’ highly solid defense. The New Saints also possess a strong attack, averaging 1.8 goals and 2.63 xG over their last 5 matches, so a one-sided win for them appears more likely than goals from both sides. The BTTS scenario is not without a chance, as the hosts average 23 shots, but the visitors’ defensive data strongly supports the “No” pick.

The New Saints have averaged 1.8 goals scored across their last five matches, while keeping a clean sheet in every game, with their average xG standing at a high 2.63. Caernarfon Town scored 1.6 goals during this period but also conceded 1.6, which should favour the visitors’ attacking output. The hosts continue to create plenty of chances, averaging 23 shots and 10 shots on target per match, but the TNS defence has allowed just 0.76 xG per game across their last five outings. The combination of the visitors’ strong attack and the hosts’ attacking potential points to a 2.75-goal projection, although TNS’s run of clean sheets limits confidence in Over 2.5 goals. The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 goals, as only two goals are needed to land, and both teams generate a high volume of scoring chances.

The New Saints are in clearly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches while remaining unbeaten, whereas Caernarfon Town have suffered 2 defeats over the same period. The visitors have been particularly solid in the opening stages, as they have not been behind at half-time in any of their last five appearances, drawing 60% of first halves and conceding no goals before the break. Caernarfon have conceded an average of 1.2 goals before half-time in their last five matches, and they led after 45 minutes in only 40% of cases, while trailing in 60%. After the interval, The New Saints score an average of 1.4 goals and have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their last five second halves, strongly supporting the HT/FT draw/The New Saints win outcome. Although the hosts generate a higher xG, 2.81 compared with 2.46, their recent average of 1.6 goals conceded per match, combined with the visitors' scoring efficiency of 1.8 goals per game, points to a The New Saints advantage after the break.