Cagliari vs Atalanta: match statistics
Cagliari vs Atalanta: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Cagliari played Atalanta in Serie A (Italy). The match was played on 27 April 2026. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Cagliari: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Atalanta: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Cagliari scores 1.00 and concedes 1.42 goals per match. Atalanta scores 1.36 and concedes 0.88. League average: 2.41 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Cagliari 48%, Atalanta 52%. Over 2.5: Cagliari 48%, Atalanta 36%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Atalanta has higher xG: 1.64 vs 1.10. Cagliari: 10.2 shots per match, Atalanta: 14.8.
Match halves
Cagliari: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.67. Atalanta: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.76.
Goals by minute
Cagliari: 61-75 (9 goals). Atalanta: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.41 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Atalanta holds a clear statistical edge: they have scored 45 goals this season versus Cagliari’s 33 and conceded only 29 compared to the hosts’ 47. In away matches Atalanta averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.94 conceded, while Cagliari at home average 1.06 scored and 1.13 conceded; the superiority in quality of chances is also reflected in xG: 1.40 for Atalanta vs 1.09 for Cagliari. In their last five fixtures the hosts have 1 win and 4 losses (0.6 pts per game), scoring 3 and conceding 9, whereas Atalanta have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (1.6 pts per game) with a 6-3 goal record. Additionally the visitors control more possession and produce more shots (54% possession, 12.19 shots and 3.88 shots on target per game) versus 45% and 10/3.25 for the hosts, and are much less likely to finish goalless (13% vs 38%). Given better efficiency, lower goals conceded and higher xG, I predict an Atalanta victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The dominant signal is recent form over the last 5 matches: Cagliari scored on average 0.6 goals and conceded 1.8 per match, while Atalanta scored 1.2 and conceded 0.6, giving realistic chances of a clean sheet for the visitors. Season BTTS rates are 47% for Cagliari and 56% for Atalanta, but in the most recent 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS only 40% each, indicating a reduced propensity for Goal/Goal in current form. Cagliari generates home xG 1.86 and 5.18 shots per match, yet managed only 3 goals in the last 5 (low conversion), whereas Atalanta has 38% clean sheets this season and concedes on average 0.6 goals in the last 5. Additionally, season clean sheet percentages 35% (Cagliari) vs 38% (Atalanta) and the league average BTTS 46% all point toward a higher probability of No Goal. Therefore I pick BTTS - No with a 65% confidence versus 35% for BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG: Cagliari has xG_for 1.86 versus Atalanta’s xG_allowed 1.57, implying approximately 1.72 goals for the hosts; Atalanta has xG_for 1.40 against Cagliari’s xG_against 1.11, implying ~1.25 goals for the visitors, total ≈2.97. Seasonal numbers confirm a tendency toward at least two goals — Cagliari has 71% of matches >1.5, Atalanta 81% (average 76%), and matches with at least one goal occur in 94% of both teams’ fixtures. Cagliari averages 17.29 shots and 5.18 shots on target per match versus Atalanta’s 12.19/3.88, with conversion rates 9% vs 10%, so the hosts’ shot volume and higher xG increase the likelihood of a minimum of two goals. Season values for >2.5 are 41% (Cagliari) and 31% (Atalanta), but Cagliari’s last 5 matches show 60% of games >2.5, and the combined xG ≈2.97 suggests a moderate probability for Over 2.5 (~58%). Consequently the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation: back Over at 1.5 line), Over 2.5 is a secondary option, and Over 3.5 appears unlikely.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Cagliari led at the break in 47% of home matches, scoring on average 0.71 goals in the first half while conceding only 0.35, and they scored 6 goals in minutes 0–15 versus 1 for Atalanta, indicating a strong home start. The hosts’ offensive strengths are confirmed by xG: Cagliari has an xG of 1.86 compared to Atalanta’s away xG conceded of 1.57 (the hosts’ average expected xG around 1.72), and 17.29 shots with 5.18 on target versus 12.19 and 3.88 for the visitors. Nevertheless, Atalanta are in better form over the last 5 matches (average 1.6 points versus Cagliari’s 0.6) and led at the break in 40% of their last five games, increasing the risk of a turnaround after half-time. Considering the home advantage in the first half and the statistical effectiveness of maintaining a lead, I selected the scenario of Cagliari leading at half-time and winning at full-time as the strongest signal (HT/FT 1/1, 30%). For balance I also assigned a meaningful probability to a draw at half-time (1/X 12%) and an Atalanta win after the break (HT/FT 2/2 13%) due to their good form.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Cagliari | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atalanta is 167% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Cagliari · 1.6 pts / match - Atalanta
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atalanta is 36% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Cagliari · 1.36 goals / match - Atalanta
Atalanta is 61% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.42 goals / match - Cagliari · 0.88 goals / match - Atalanta
Cagliari scores in 64% of matches (21 of 33 matches), while Atalanta keeps a clean sheet in 36% (12 of 33 matches).
Atalanta scores in 82% of matches (27 of 33 matches), while Cagliari keeps a clean sheet in 21% (7 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Cagliari
Over / Under - Atalanta
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Atalanta is 62% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.94 pts / match - Cagliari · 1.52 pts / match - Atalanta
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Cagliari - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Atalanta - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Cagliari
Atalanta
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Cagliari | Liga | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.42 | 2.41 | ▼ 2.24 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 48% | 45% | ▲ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 48% | 46% | ▼ 36% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 32% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 61% | 65% | ▲ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 77% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Cagliari 0 - 0 - 1 Atalanta. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Cagliari vs Atalanta?
The Serie A match finished Cagliari 3:2 Atalanta. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Cagliari vs Atalanta?
Cagliari score 1.00 goals per game on average and Atalanta 1.36. The Serie A average is 2.41 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 48% of Cagliari's matches and 52% of Atalanta's.
What form are Cagliari and Atalanta in?
Over the last 5 games Cagliari have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Atalanta 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Cagliari vs Atalanta?
The statistical background for Cagliari vs Atalanta — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.