Cagliari vs Cremonese: match statistics
Cagliari vs Cremonese: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Cagliari played Cremonese in Serie A (Italy). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Cagliari: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Cremonese: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Cagliari scores 1.03 and concedes 1.42 goals per match. Cremonese scores 0.84 and concedes 1.48. League average: 2.44 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Cagliari 52%, Cremonese 45%. Over 2.5: Cagliari 48%, Cremonese 42%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Cagliari has higher xG: 1.08 vs 1.05. Cagliari: 10.0 shots per match, Cremonese: 9.2.
Match halves
Cagliari: half-time lead 16%, second-half goals 0.68. Cremonese: half-time lead 16%, second-half goals 0.55.
Goals by minute
Cagliari: 31-45+ (8 goals). Cremonese: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.44 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Cagliari have the home edge: at home they average 1.07 goals and generate xG of 1.04, while Cremonese score 0.81 goals away with xG 0.95. Defensively the hosts also perform better — Cagliari concede 1.20 goals per home match (xG against 1.42), whereas Cremonese concede 1.44 goals away and register 1.95 xG against. In the last 5 matches both teams are in crisis: Cagliari have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats averaging 0.2 points per game, and Cremonese 1 win and 4 defeats averaging 0.6 points per game. Cagliari also register more shots on target at home (3.13 vs 2.81) and are less likely to finish goalless (40% vs 50%), which increases their scoring probability. Considering the better home goal difference (-2 versus -10 for Cremonese away), higher xG and superiority in shots on target, I forecast a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Cagliari has a season BTTS rate of 53% versus Cremonese’s 38%, but in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 80% (Cagliari) and 60% (Cremonese), signaling a rising likelihood of both teams scoring. Both sides concede significantly — averaging 1.53 (Cagliari) and 1.44 (Cremonese) goals per game this season, and even more in the last 5 matches: 1.8 and 2.0, which increases the risk of conceding. xG shows the home side creates 1.15 xG per match versus 0.95 for the visitors, while opponents generate 1.65 and 1.95 xG against them, meaning both defenses regularly allow scoring opportunities. Low clean sheet rates (27% vs 25%), shots on target 3.6 vs 2.81 and a league average goals of 2.44 further support a Goal/Goal scenario. Based on this, I tip BTTS - Yes as more likely (70% vs 30%), because the last 5 matches and high xG against (1.65/1.95) outweigh the lower season averages of goals scored (0.87 and 0.81).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I assess the chance of Over 1.5 at 73%: season-long stats show Cagliari have 80% of home matches with over 1.5 goals and Cremonese 63%, giving an average close to 73%. This is supported by xG values — Cagliari xG_for 1.15 and Cremonese xG_for 0.95, and high xG_against: Cagliari xG_against 1.65 and Cremonese 1.95 — signaling substantial goal potential for both teams. After adjusting these xG figures for low finishing rates (shot conversion 8% for the home side and 10% for the visitors) and the seasonal averages of goals scored (0.87 and 0.81), I expect ~1.25 goals for Cagliari and ~0.95 for Cremonese, totaling 2.20. Seasonal percentages for Over 2.5 are 40% and 44% (hence Over 2.5 at ~44%), while Over 3.5 is unlikely (27% and 19% → ~23%). The strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5, so I recommend staking Over at the 1.5 line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I back X/2 (draw at Half-Time, Cremonese to win Full-Time). Both teams show low first-half efficiency: Cagliari averages 0.33 goals at the break, Cremonese 0.25, and draws at half occur in 40% and 44% of their matches respectively (≈42% combined), which strongly favors an HT draw. After the break the advantage shifts to the visitors: Cremonese average 1.56 points in second halves and win 44% of second halves, whereas Cagliari average 0.87 points and only 13% second-half wins, so the visitors are more likely to mount a turnaround. Season-long indicators also show Cremonese’s edge in results (away wins 25% vs home wins 13%), and xG of 1.15 vs 0.95 confirms the first half should be balanced and low-scoring, supporting the HT draw/FT win for the visitors.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Cagliari | Cremonese | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Cremonese is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - Cagliari · 0.6 pts / match - Cremonese
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Cagliari is 23% better for: goals scored per match.
1.03 goals / match - Cagliari · 0.84 goals / match - Cremonese
Cagliari scores in 65% of matches (20 of 31 matches), while Cremonese keeps a clean sheet in 26% (8 of 31 matches).
Cremonese scores in 55% of matches (17 of 31 matches), while Cagliari keeps a clean sheet in 19% (6 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Cagliari
Over / Under - Cremonese
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Cagliari - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 16% of matches and wins 23%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Cremonese - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 16% of matches and wins 19%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -6 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Cagliari
Cremonese
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Cagliari | Liga | Cremonese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.45 | 2.44 | ▼ 2.32 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 52% | 46% | • 45% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 48% | 47% | ▼ 42% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 31% | ▼ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | • 65% | 65% | ▼ 61% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 87% | 77% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Cagliari 0 - 1 - 0 Cremonese. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Cagliari vs Cremonese?
The Serie A match finished Cagliari 1:0 Cremonese. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Cagliari vs Cremonese?
Cagliari score 1.03 goals per game on average and Cremonese 0.84. The Serie A average is 2.44 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Cagliari's matches and 45% of Cremonese's.
What form are Cagliari and Cremonese in?
Over the last 5 games Cagliari have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Cremonese 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Cagliari vs Cremonese?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Cagliari vs Cremonese: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.