Cagliari vs Lecce: match statistics

Lecce have a slightly better record over their last five matches, winning 3 games and averaging 1.8 points, while Cagliari have recorded 2 victories and averaged 1.6 points. The key factor is the visitors’ away form: they won their only away match so far 2:0, averaging 12 shots, including 5 on target, and keeping a clean sheet. In their home match, Cagliari failed to score, registered 0 shots on target and created just 0.83 xG, while their opponents generated as much as 2.83 xG against them. Lecce also allow opponents chances worth 2.14 xG away from home, so the hosts have a case for scoring, but their poor finishing reduces their chances. The visitors’ advantage in the number of chances created, combined with their superior conversion rate—17% compared with Cagliari’s 0% at home—points to a Lecce win.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as both teams recorded Goal/Goal in only 20% of their last 5 matches, compared with the league average of 35%. During this period, Cagliari scored just 0.8 goals per match and failed to find the net in 100% of their home fixtures to date, which significantly limits the hosts’ chances of scoring. Lecce are more dangerous offensively, averaging 1.2 goals, 1.34 xG and 5 shots on target per match, but Cagliari have conceded only 0.6 goals per game recently. In addition, Lecce kept a clean sheet in 100% of away matches in the available sample, making the outcome in which at least one team fails to score more likely.

Cagliari’s last five matches produced an average of just 1.4 total goals, with the team scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.6 goals per match. Lecce recorded a more open profile over the same period, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.6 goals per game, but matches with at least three goals occurred in only 40% of cases, compared with 20% for the hosts. Both teams recorded just 20% of matches in which both sides scored, limiting the likelihood of the game escalating. The chance-quality indicators are higher, at 1.21 and 1.34 xG respectively, but their defensive figures against opponents—1.58 and 1.60 xG—do not justify a four-goal projection. Under 3.5 therefore holds a clear advantage, as the expected total is approximately 2.30 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as Cagliari were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches and shared the points in 40% of those games overall. The hosts are currently very cautious before half-time: they score an average of just 0.2 goals during that period and kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 first halves. Lecce have greater attacking potential, with an xG of 1.32 compared with Cagliari’s 0.89, as well as an average of 5 shots on target to their opponents’ 3, but they conceded an average of 1.6 goals across their last five matches. After the break, both teams frequently fail to settle their respective part of the match, a pattern seen in 80% of Cagliari’s recent games and 60% of Lecce’s. Lecce’s advantage also increases the likelihood of the HT/FT draw/away win variant, X/2, but Cagliari’s balanced results and solid defensive organisation favour a draw at full-time.