Cancún vs CA La Paz: match statistics

CA La Paz have a clear offensive advantage: they have scored 10 goals this season compared to Cancún’s 4, while averaging 3.5 goals per away match. The visitors also create slightly better chances, with an average xG of 1.61 versus 1.59 for the hosts, but above all they are far more clinical, converting 25% of their shots compared to Cancún’s 7%. Cancún concede an average of just 1 goal at home and have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, limiting the extent of the visitors’ advantage, but they have failed to score in half of their home games. Both teams have collected 7 points from their last five outings; however, CA La Paz scored 10 times during this period, while Cancún managed only 5, which is why the visitors have the better chances of winning.

The signal for BTTS - No is driven primarily by Cancún’s limited attacking consistency: the hosts score an average of 1.0 goal, and they have failed to score in 33% of their matches this season. Their season-long rate of matches with both teams scoring stands at just 33%, rising only to 40% across their last five appearances, which remains below the league average of 53%. CA La Paz are highly dangerous offensively, scoring an average of 3.5 goals per match this season and 2.0 across their last five games, so an away goal is likely. At the same time, La Paz have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, while Cancún average only 3.0 shots on target per game, increasing the risk that the hosts will fail to respond with a goal. Although Cancún’s latest xG stands at 1.51 compared with La Paz’s 1.34 xG conceded, the more likely scenario is that at least one team will fail to score.

The projected goal total is 2.80, as Cancún generate an average of 1.28 xG, while CA La Paz allow opponents 1.48 xG. Meanwhile, the visitors produce 1.61 xG, compared with 1.31 xG conceded by the hosts. CA La Paz have averaged 3.5 goals per match so far and recorded 6 shots on target, with at least 2 goals scored in 100% of their matches. Cancún have a more conservative profile, averaging 1.0 goals scored and just 0.67 conceded per match, although they have conceded 1.4 goals per game across their last five outings. The Over 1.5 goals line is also best supported by recent form: both teams recorded matches averaging a combined 2.4 and 3.2 goals respectively across their previous five fixtures. Higher lines are less reliable, as only 20% of Cancún’s last five matches and 40% of CA La Paz’s exceeded 2.5 goals.

CA La Paz have a clearly stronger attacking profile away from home: they score an average of 3.5 goals compared with Cancún’s 1.0 at home, and they also register 6 shots on target versus the hosts’ 3. The visitors led at the break in both of their away matches to date, scoring an average of 2.0 goals before half-time and conceding none. Their average xG is 1.61, while Cancún create chances worth 1.28 xG, and the hosts have conceded an average of 1.4 goals across their last five matches. However, Cancún are capable of holding onto a favourable result for long periods, having been level at half-time in 67% of their home matches. Therefore, the key alternative remains a draw at half-time followed by a La Paz win. Nevertheless, the strongest single scenario is the visitors leading at the break and securing victory at the final whistle.