Cardiff MU vs Haverfordwest County: match statistics

Cardiff MU have a clear home advantage: they average 2.75 goals per match, while Haverfordwest County score just 0.33 goals away from home. The hosts create significantly more chances, averaging 15.5 shots and 7.5 on target per game, compared with just 4.67 shots and 1.33 on target for the visitors. The difference is also reflected in the quality of chances: Cardiff’s average xG stands at 1.91, while Haverfordwest’s away xG is only 0.62; the visitors have failed to score in 67% of their away matches. Haverfordwest are in good overall form, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, but they have not won any away fixture and have lost 67% of them. Cardiff concede an average of 2 goals at home, giving the visitors a chance to score, but the hosts’ attacking superiority should ultimately secure the victory.

The BTTS - No scenario looks more compelling, as both teams recorded BTTS in only 33% of their matches this season, compared with the league average of 52%. Haverfordwest averages just 0.33 goals per match and failed to score in 67% of its games, while its attacking xG stands at only 0.62, with 1.33 shots on target per appearance. Cardiff concedes an average of 1.50 goals, but in its last five matches allowed opponents just 0.8 goals per game, further limiting the visitors’ chances. The hosts are considerably more active in attack, averaging 12.17 shots compared with the opponent’s 4.67, making a Cardiff goal with Haverfordwest failing to score more likely than goals at both ends.

Cardiff creates significantly more at home than Haverfordwest does away: averaging 1.36 xG, 12.17 shots and 3.33 shots on target compared with the visitors’ 0.62 xG, 4.67 shots and 1.33 shots on target. The hosts should benefit from the visitors’ weak defence, which allows an average of 2.12 xG and 1.67 goals, hence their projected total of 1.78 goals. At the same time, Haverfordwest scores only 0.33 goals per away game and failed to score in 67% of such matches, limiting the visitors’ expected output to 0.82 goals. The 3.5 line is strongly supported by the season results: 83% of Cardiff’s matches and 100% of Haverfordwest’s away fixtures finished with fewer than four goals. Both teams’ improved recent attacking form increases the likelihood of at least 2 goals, but it is not sufficient to outweigh the value of the Under 3.5 goals bet.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 67% of their matches to date, while Haverfordwest averaged 0.00 goals in the first half. Cardiff scored just 0.17 goals per match before the break over the course of the season, but improved that figure to 0.80 goals across their last five appearances and led at half-time in 60% of matches. After the interval, the hosts should make use of their greater attacking potential: they average 1.36 xG compared with the visitors’ 0.62 xG and record 3.33 shots on target per match versus Haverfordwest’s 1.33. The visitors concede an average of 1.67 goals per game, have kept no clean sheets, and their average xG against is a high 2.12. The X/1 scenario is further supported by the fact that the second half produced at least one goal in 100% of Haverfordwest’s matches and 83% of Cardiff’s.