Carina Gubin vs Goczałkowice Zdrój: match statistics

Carina Gubin hold a slight edge thanks to home advantage: they average 0.83 goals per match at home, while Goczałkowice Zdrój score just 0.33 goals away and are yet to win on the road. The hosts average 6 shots on target per home match, compared with 2.83 for the visitors away from home, boosting their chances of breaking down the opposition defence. However, both teams have defensive issues: Carina concede an average of 1.83 goals at home, while Goczałkowice concede 2 goals away. The visitors have won 2 of their last 5 matches, compared with 1 win for Carina, but both sides have conceded 9 goals over that period. The hosts’ strongest case is the visitors’ poor away form, although similar attacking xG figures — 1.34 for Carina at home and 1.30 for Goczałkowice away — point to a closely contested match.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is the visitors’ away scoring record: they average just 0.33 goals and fail to score in 67% of such matches. Carina Gubin keep a clean sheet in 40% of their home games and concede an average of 0.8 goals, making a visitors’ blank a realistic scenario. The hosts have greater attacking potential in these conditions, averaging 1.8 goals at home, while Goczałkowice concede 2.0 on the road. However, the visitors have averaged 1.4 goals over their last five matches, leaving some chance of both teams scoring. Their away BTTS rate is only 33%, though, compared with the hosts’ 20% at home.

The strongest signal is for Over 1.5 goals: this line has been exceeded in 80% of Carina Gubin’s matches and 83% of Goczałkowice-Zdrój’s matches. The hosts score an average of 1.8 goals, while the visitors concede 2.0, giving Carina a clear chance to reach two goals even without much contribution from their opponents. The visitors’ scoring remains uncertain, however: they average just 0.33 goals and have failed to score in 67% of matches, although their average has risen to 1.4 goals across their last five games. In both teams’ last five matches, 60% finished with at least three goals, but full-season figures show this in only 40% and 33% of matches, respectively, making the 2.5 line less convincing. The forecast of 2.50 total goals therefore points to the more cautious option of Over 1.5 goals.

The strongest signal concerns the first half: Carina Gubin led at the break in 3 of their 5 home matches and did not concede a goal before half-time in any of them, while Goczałkowice Zdrój were trailing at the break in 4 of their 6 away fixtures. The home side’s advantage carries through to full-time: they won 60% of their home matches, while the visitors have not won away and concede an average of 2.0 goals on the road, compared with 1.8 goals scored by Carina. The higher number of shots on target—5.0 versus 2.83 per match—also supports a scenario in which the home side lead at the break and see the game out. However, this pick is not a certainty, as Carina have failed to score after half-time in their last 5 matches, regardless of venue, while Goczałkowice have averaged 0.8 goals in second halves. Despite this caveat, Carina’s clear home advantage and the visitors’ frequent first-half concessions make 1/1 the most likely single outcome.