Carrarese vs Empoli: match statistics

Both teams lost the only match they have played so far in their respective roles: Carrarese at home and Empoli away, with neither side keeping a clean sheet. However, Carrarese’s overall trend is clearly weaker, with just 1 point from their last 5 matches and a 3:8 goal difference. Over the same period, Empoli collected 6 points, recording 1 win, 3 draws and just 1 defeat, although their away defence conceded an average of 1.84 xG and allowed 3 goals. The hosts create slightly better chances at home, averaging 1.06 xG compared with Empoli’s 0.79 away from home, but they manage only 2 shots on target per match. Empoli’s advantage in possession, 54% compared with 48%, and their more consistent run of draws offset Carrarese’s home advantage, making a share of the points the most likely outcome.

The signal for goals from both sides is supported by recent results: BTTS occurred in 60% of Carrarese’s last five matches and in 80% of Empoli’s fixtures. During this period, Carrarese conceded an average of 1.6 goals, while Empoli conceded 1.2, with average xG against figures of 1.54 and 1.41, respectively. Empoli have not kept a clean sheet this season, while the hosts are recording significantly more shots on target, 5.0 compared with their opponents’ 2.0, which strengthens their chances of scoring. The risk to the pick is Carrarese’s poor current finishing, as they have scored only 0.6 goals per game in their last five outings, but both defences are allowing enough chances. BTTS - Yes remains slightly more likely than the scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Carrarese’s last five matches produced an average of 2.2 goals, while Empoli’s matches averaged 2.2 goals, with Over 2.5 goals landing in only 40% and 20% of those games, respectively. During this period, the hosts scored just 0.6 goals per match, while Empoli averaged 1.0 goal, limiting the potential for a very high-scoring game. The xG figures are similar and moderate: 1.07 for Carrarese and 1.00 for Empoli, while both defenses allowed opponents approximately 1.4-1.5 xG. Carrarese average 10 shots and 5 shots on target at home, but Empoli record only 6 shots and 2 on target away from home, making a total below four goals the most likely outcome. The Under 3.5 line has the edge, as the projected total of 2.27 goals leaves a clear margin below the four-goal threshold.

Empoli are showing clearly better current form: they have averaged 1.2 points and lost only once in their last five matches, whereas Carrarese have averaged 0.2 points and suffered four defeats. The first halves particularly favour the visitors, as Carrarese were trailing at the break in 80% of their recent matches, scoring 0.0 goals and conceding 1.0 during that period. Empoli led at half-time in 40% of the matches in this sequence, while conceding just 0.2 goals per game before the break. The hosts have also been less effective offensively in their last five outings, averaging 0.6 goals compared with Empoli’s 1.0. Therefore, the most likely scenario is that the visitors lead at the break and go on to maintain their victory, corresponding to an HT/FT 2/2 outcome.