Carrick Rangers vs Cliftonville: match statistics

Both teams have collected 9 points from their last five matches, winning 3 games each, but Cliftonville have posted significantly stronger away figures. The visitors score an average of 1.5 goals away from home from 4 shots on target per match, while Carrick Rangers manage just 0.5 goals at home and have failed to score in 50% of such fixtures. Cliftonville also have a 13% shooting accuracy rate, compared with just 4% for the hosts, which could prove decisive when it comes to converting a limited number of chances. Carrick do create better chances according to xG, 1.62 compared with 1.45, but the visitors concede only 0.5 goals per away match and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their outings. With Cliftonville also enjoying greater possession, 56% compared with 49%, the marginal lean is towards an away win.

The stronger signal points towards BTTS - No, as Cliftonville kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches, while Carrick Rangers failed to score in 33% of games. Recent form also lowers the rating of the both-teams-to-score scenario: BTTS occurred in only 20% of Carrick Rangers’ last five matches and in 40% of Cliftonville’s games. The hosts have conceded an average of 0.8 goals per match recently, while Cliftonville have conceded just 1.0, increasing the likelihood that one of the defences will keep the opposition scoreless. Offensive potential remains noticeable, with average xG figures of 1.49 for Carrick Rangers and 1.53 for Cliftonville, but the overall league BTTS rate is only 41%, making the scenario in which at least one team fails to score more likely.

The projected total of 2.55 goals is based on similar attacking potential: both teams average 1.45 xG, while over their last five matches the figures are 1.49 and 1.53, respectively. However, Cliftonville concede just 0.50 goals per match in the league and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their games, which limits expectations for the hosts despite their average of 1.67 goals scored. In their last five matches, Carrick Rangers have conceded only 0.80 goals per game, while the overall rate of matches finishing Over 3.5 goals stands at just 33% for the hosts and 0% for the visitors. The Under 3.5 line therefore has a clear edge, as neither team has recorded a game with at least four goals in Cliftonville’s matches, while the visitors’ defense particularly supports a result in the 1-3 goal range.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Cliftonville win, as Carrick Rangers were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Cliftonville were not trailing at half-time in any of them. Both teams kept a clean sheet before the break in 100% of the matches analysed, strongly supporting a cautious and even opening period. Cliftonville, however, have the more solid defence over the course of the season, conceding an average of just 0.5 goals per match compared with 1.33 for the hosts. Both teams generate identical average xG of 1.45, but Carrick concede an average of 1.33 goals after half-time, giving the visitors a better chance of turning the match in their favour in the second half.