Carrick Rangers vs Portadown: match statistics

Both teams have shown a similar level of performance in their last five matches: Carrick Rangers have collected 7 points, while Portadown have earned 8. The hosts have scored 10 goals during this period, 2 more than their opponents, but both sides have conceded 9 goals, highlighting clear defensive issues. Portadown have lost just 1 of their last 5 matches and recorded 2 draws, whereas Carrick Rangers have suffered 2 defeats. The lack of season data on home and away results limits the significance of home advantage, while the similar form and vulnerable defenses point towards a share of the points. Carrick Rangers hold a slight edge in finishing efficiency, but Portadown’s more stable run offsets this advantage.

Both teams recorded BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches, giving each side a very similar and high rate of 80%. Carrick Rangers scored 10 goals during this period, averaging 2.0 per match, while Portadown scored 8, averaging 1.6, so both teams have solid grounds to find the net. At the same time, both sides conceded 9 goals in five appearances, an average of 1.8 goals per game, which significantly weakens the case for either team to keep a clean sheet. Their attacking xG figures are lower, at 1.01 for the hosts and 0.96 for the visitors, but Portadown’s defence allowed opponents 1.63 xG, making a Carrick Rangers goal particularly likely. The strongest signal remains the combination of 80% of matches featuring goals for both teams and regularly conceded goals, so BTTS - Yes is the more likely outcome.

Data from the last five matches points to open games: Carrick Rangers scored an average of 2.0 goals and conceded 1.8, while Portadown scored 1.6 and conceded 1.8. In these runs, at least three goals were scored in 80% and 60% of matches respectively, while both teams scored in 80% of each team’s games. A more cautious assessment is provided by the quality of chances, as the average xG stood at 1.01 for Carrick Rangers and 0.96 for Portadown, with xG conceded at 1.24 and 1.63 respectively. This supports a projection of around 2.65 goals, but does not provide an equally strong edge for Over 2.5. The strongest signal is Over 1.5, as the current attacking efficiency of both teams and the vulnerability of both defenses clearly increase the likelihood of at least two goals.

Portadown have started their recent matches strongly: they were leading at the break in 4 of their last 5 games, while Carrick Rangers did so in only 1 of 5 and went into half-time behind on 2 occasions. The visitors averaged 1.0 goals before the break, while their points tally in this period stood at 2.4 points per game, compared with 1.0 for the hosts. Carrick Rangers are, however, more dangerous after the interval, having averaged 1.2 goals in the second half across their last five appearances and won the second half in 60% of those matches. Despite this, Portadown have the better current full-time results, recording 2 wins and 2 draws in their last five games, while the hosts suffered 2 defeats. The most likely scenario therefore remains one in which the visitors capitalise on their first-half advantage and maintain it until the final whistle.