Casa Pia vs Rio Ave FC: match statistics
Casa Pia vs Rio Ave FC: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Casa Pia played Rio Ave FC in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match was played on 16 May 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Casa Pia: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Rio Ave FC: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Casa Pia scores 0.91 and concedes 1.70 goals per match. Rio Ave FC scores 1.03 and concedes 1.70. League average: 2.68 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Casa Pia 45%, Rio Ave FC 52%. Over 2.5: Casa Pia 45%, Rio Ave FC 61%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Rio Ave FC has higher xG: 1.18 vs 0.97. Casa Pia: 8.5 shots per match, Rio Ave FC: 10.6.
Match halves
Casa Pia: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.45. Rio Ave FC: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.64.
Goals by minute
Casa Pia: 31-45+ (7 goals). Rio Ave FC: 61-75 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.68 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict an away win (Rio Ave) because their offensive metrics on the road are superior: on average 3.63 shots on target and 8.63 shots per match versus Casa Pia’s 2.56 shots on target and 7.56 shots per match at home. Rio Ave also has higher away expected goals (xG) at 1.02 versus the home side’s 0.91 xG and a lower share of goalless matches (38% vs 44%), giving them an efficiency edge. Both teams are defensively vulnerable — each has conceded 56 goals this season, with average goals conceded of 1.56 (Casa Pia at home) versus 1.69 (Rio Ave away), so the game could be open. Additionally, Casa Pia record as many as 50% draws at home and only 13% wins, while Rio Ave win 31% of their away matches; in the last 5 fixtures the visitors scored 5 goals (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, 1.0 pts/match), and the hosts scored 2 goals (1-1-3, 0.8 pts/match). Considering these indicators, I assign Rio Ave the highest chances: roughly 45% for an away win, 35% for a draw and 20% for a Casa Pia win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS rates are 53% for Casa Pia and 50% for Rio Ave (average 51.5%), nominally suggesting parity between the teams. However, in the last 5 matches Casa Pia had BTTS in only 20% (1/5), and Rio Ave 40% (2/5) — an average of 30%, a clear drop versus the season. Casa Pia in their last 5 matches score 0.4 goals and concede 0.8, with recent xG 0.98 for and 1.11 against; Rio Ave score 1.0 in their last 5 and have xG 1.35 with xG against 1.52. Additionally, season-long stats show both teams concede heavily: 1.71 and 1.69 goals per game, and over 2.5 occurs in 65% (Casa Pia) and 56% (Rio Ave) of matches, but these long-term indicators are weakened by the hosts' current offensive form. Considering the sharp BTTS drop to 30% in the last 5 matches and Casa Pia’s low goals average (0.4), I view the 'No' (No Goal / no BTTS) scenario as more likely.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams have weak defenses: Casa Pia concedes an average of 1.71 goals per match and Rio Ave 1.69, which favors a higher goal count. An xG-based model gives 1.55 expected goals for the home side (home xG 1.33 vs xG conceded to Rio Ave 1.77) and 1.35 for the visitors (away xG 1.02 vs xG conceded to Casa Pia 1.68), totaling 2.90 goals. Seasonal Over 1.5 rates are 82% for Casa Pia and 81% for Rio Ave, translating into a high probability for Over 1.5 (~84%). For the 2.5 line the seasonal rates are 65% and 56%, and the projected 2.90 goals imply roughly a 64% chance of Over 2.5; Over 3.5 is unlikely (~30%) since seasonally it's only 29–31%. Therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal: the high seasonal >1.5 percentages combined with the 2.90 expected goals (1.55 vs 1.35) provide a clear edge.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At Half-Time I project a draw: Casa Pia led in 24% of matches, Rio Ave in 13%, and in the last 5 meetings both teams were level at the break in 80% of cases. Casa Pia have the higher xG (1.33 vs 1.02) and score on average 0.59 goals before the break compared to 0.19 for Rio Ave, which explains their greater first-half activity. However, the visitors’ advantage in the second half is shown by average goals of 2.06 for Rio Ave vs 1.18 for Casa Pia and a season win rate for away teams of 31% versus 18% for home teams, so after a draw at the break I expect a turnaround in favor of Rio Ave. Based on this the most likely scenario is Half-Time draw and Full-Time away win (X/2) — 30% probability; the second most likely is draw/draw (21%); draw and home win is priced at 11%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Casa Pia | Rio Ave FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Rio Ave FC is 25% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Casa Pia · 1 pts / match - Rio Ave FC
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Rio Ave FC is 13% better for: goals scored per match.
0.91 goals / match - Casa Pia · 1.03 goals / match - Rio Ave FC
Casa Pia scores in 55% of matches (18 of 33 matches), while Rio Ave FC keeps a clean sheet in 18% (6 of 33 matches).
Rio Ave FC scores in 61% of matches (20 of 33 matches), while Casa Pia keeps a clean sheet in 21% (7 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Casa Pia
Over / Under - Rio Ave FC
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Casa Pia is 19% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.12 pts / match - Casa Pia · 0.94 pts / match - Rio Ave FC
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Casa Pia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 18%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Rio Ave FC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (8 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Casa Pia
Rio Ave FC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| Casa Pia | Liga | Rio Ave FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.61 | 2.68 | • 2.73 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 45% | 48% | ▲ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 45% | 54% | ▲ 61% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 29% | ▼ 18% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 69% | ▲ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 76% | 79% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Casa Pia 0 - 0 - 1 Rio Ave FC. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Casa Pia vs Rio Ave FC?
The Liga NOS match finished Casa Pia 1:1 Rio Ave FC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Casa Pia vs Rio Ave FC?
Casa Pia score 0.91 goals per game on average and Rio Ave FC 1.03. The Liga NOS average is 2.68 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 45% of Casa Pia's matches and 52% of Rio Ave FC's.
What form are Casa Pia and Rio Ave FC in?
Over the last 5 games Casa Pia have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Rio Ave FC 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Casa Pia vs Rio Ave FC?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Casa Pia vs Rio Ave FC: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.