Cavese vs Audace Cerignola: match statistics

Audace Cerignola opened the season with a 3:1 win, while Cavese lost their only match so far 0:3, which clearly favors the visitors. In their last five matches, Cerignola scored 8 goals—more than twice as many as Cavese’s 3—and also recorded a slightly higher points return: 1.2 compared with 1.0 per game. However, the hosts have drawn 2 of their last five matches, while the visitors have drawn as many as 3, making a draw a highly plausible outcome. Both teams conceded 7 goals in their last five matches, so Cerignola’s advantage is primarily down to greater attacking efficiency rather than a clearly superior defense.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive, as Audace Cerignola has seen both teams score in 100% of its last 5 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Cavese, during the same period, scored just 0.6 goals per match, which is the main argument against the pick, while also conceding 1.4 goals. The attacking potential of both sides remains comparable: their average xG over the last five matches stands at 1.07 for Cavese and 1.23 for Cerignola, with xG allowed of 1.38 and 1.33, respectively. Additionally, 86% of matches in the competition have ended with goals scored by both teams, making the scenario in which each team scores at least one goal more likely.

Cavese’s last five matches produced just 3 goals scored and 7 conceded, averaging 2.0 total goals per game, while Over 2.5 goals landed in only 20% of those fixtures. Audace Cerignola plays more openly, recording 8 goals scored and 7 conceded in its last five matches, although its average xG created stands at 1.23. Cavese currently generates only 1.07 xG per match, while Audace allows an average of 1.33 xG, indicating moderate home-side attacking potential rather than a high-scoring game. The projected total of 2.40 goals provides a clear margin below four goals, making Under 3.5 the safest signal.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and at the final whistle, as Audace Cerignola were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches and shared the points in 60% of them at full-time. During this period, Cavese scored only 0.2 goals before half-time and failed to find the net before the break in 4 of 5 matches, clearly limiting the hosts’ chances of taking an early lead. The visitors were more effective in the first halves, averaging 0.8 goals compared with Cavese’s 0.2, but their average of 0.6 goals conceded before half-time favours an evenly balanced opening. After the break, both teams averaged 0.4 and 0.8 goals respectively, while conceding 1.0 and 0.8 goals respectively; therefore, a draw at full-time remains more likely than a decisive outcome.