CD El Nacional vs 22 de Julio: match statistics

CD El Nacional are having a very poor season, but they perform significantly better at home than 22 de Julio do away: the hosts lose 58% of such matches, while the visitors lose as many as 82%. El Nacional average 0.42 goals scored and create chances worth 1.49 xG on home turf, whereas 22 de Julio score just 0.36 goals away from home with only 0.79 xG. The visitors are also in particularly poor form, having failed to score in their last 5 matches, losing 4 times and collecting just 1 point. 22 de Julio’s away defence concedes an average of 2 goals per match and allows opponents 1.76 xG, giving the hosts their best opportunity to overcome their own limited attacking efficiency. A draw remains a realistic outcome, as El Nacional have failed to score in 58% of their home matches, but home advantage and the visitors’ extremely weak attack support result 1.

The data strongly supports BTTS - No, as both teams have a very low seasonal rate of matches in which both sides scored: 15% for El Nacional and 18% for 22 de Julio, compared with 36% for the league. The visitors are particularly weak offensively, averaging just 0.36 goals per match; they have failed to score in their last 5 games and generated only 0.51 xG. El Nacional also struggles with finishing, averaging 0.46 goals per match this season and 0.4 across their last five games, despite taking an average of 10.0 shots. BTTS landed in only 20% of the hosts’ last five matches and 0% of the visitors’ games, significantly increasing the likelihood that at least one team will fail to score again. 22 de Julio’s higher average of 2.0 goals conceded could allow the hosts to win, but it does not offset the extremely low probability of the visitors scoring.

Both teams have a very weak attacking profile: El Nacional averages 0.46 goals, while 22 de Julio averages just 0.36 goals per match. The visitors have failed to score in their last five matches, recording an average xG of only 0.51 over that period. El Nacional are better positioned to find the net, as their opponents concede an average of 2.00 goals, but the hosts themselves have scored just 0.4 times per match across their last five appearances. Under 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of the hosts’ matches and 73% of the visitors’ games, while over 3.5 goals occurred in only 8% and 18% of cases, respectively. With a projected total of 1.70 goals, Under 3.5 goals offers the clearest edge, as even a three-goal scenario remains consistent with both teams’ low scoring efficiency.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and at full-time, as both teams rank among the weakest offensively: El Nacional score an average of 0.46 goals, while 22 de Julio score only 0.36. In their last five matches, the visitors have failed to score a single goal, whereas the hosts have scored just 0.4 goals per game. Before the break, El Nacional average 0.33 goals scored and 0.22 conceded, with as many as 56% of their matches level at half-time; the visitors score only 0.10 goals in the first halves. The hosts’ low xG of 0.97 compared with the visitors’ 0.79, combined with the visitors’ very poor 4% conversion rate, points to a tight match without a clear advantage for either side. El Nacional have better defensive numbers and a greater chance of securing a narrow victory after drawing at half-time, but with 69% of the hosts’ matches and 73% of the visitors’ matches ending without them scoring, a draw remains the most likely outcome.