CD Nacional vs GD Estoril Praia: match statistics

CD Nacional hold a slight edge thanks to their stronger recent run: they have collected 5 points from their last five matches, compared with Estoril’s 3. The hosts scored 5 goals during this period, one more than the visitors, with a record of one win, two draws and two defeats. Estoril have failed to win any of their last five matches, drawing three and losing two, which highlights their limited ability to turn closely contested games in their favour. However, both defences have shown vulnerabilities, with Nacional conceding 6 goals and Estoril 7 in their last five outings, making a draw a realistic possibility. Nacional’s victory is marginally more likely, supported by home advantage and slightly better attacking efficiency in their current form.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive, as Estoril had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Nacional conceded an average of 1.2 goals over the same period. The hosts created an average of 1.38 xG, whereas Estoril allowed opponents 1.16 xG and conceded 1.4 goals per match across their last five games, supporting the expectation of at least one Nacional goal. The visitors scored only 0.8 goals per match in their last five outings, but their 1.28 xG and Nacional’s 1.54 xG conceded indicate that they have a realistic route to finding the net. The BTTS - Yes pick is nevertheless only a slight edge over the BTTS - No scenario, as Nacional had BTTS in just 40% of their last 5 matches; however, the league rate of 56% further tilts the assessment towards “Yes”.

Data from the last five matches points to a moderate scoring rate: Nacional averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded, while Estoril scored 0.8 and conceded 1.4 goals. Combined, this profile is closer to 2–3 goals than to an open game with at least four goals. Only 40% of Nacional’s and 20% of Estoril’s last matches went over 2.5 goals, while the league average stands at 2.56 goals. The xG figures from the last five appearances—1.38 for the home side and 1.28 for the visitors—support a projection of around 2.25 goals but do not suggest an exceptionally high-scoring game. The strongest pick is Under 3.5, as both teams have shown low finishing efficiency in their recent form, while the four-goal threshold is clearly above their typical level of goal production.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as Nacional were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, while Estoril ended as many as 3 of their last 5 games with the points shared. The hosts have recently averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, whereas the visitors score just 0.8 goals and concede 1.4, limiting the likelihood of either side establishing a clear advantage. In the first halves, Estoril failed to score in any of their last five appearances and were trailing at the break in 80% of them, but Nacional also have a negative first-half record, conceding an average of 0.8 goals while scoring 0.6. After the interval, Estoril improve to 0.8 goals per match and won the second half in 80% of their recent games, making a draw at full-time a safer option than an outright Nacional victory. The low average of 2.2 goals across the teams’ last five matches further supports an even, cautious game.