CD Tondela vs CD Nacional: match statistics
CD Tondela vs CD Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
CD Tondela played CD Nacional in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match was played on 25 April 2026. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
CD Tondela: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. CD Nacional: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
CD Tondela scores 0.72 and concedes 1.66 goals per match. CD Nacional scores 1.07 and concedes 1.37. League average: 2.69 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: CD Tondela 34%, CD Nacional 50%. Over 2.5: CD Tondela 52%, CD Nacional 43%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
CD Nacional has higher xG: 1.35 vs 1.13. CD Tondela: 10.2 shots per match, CD Nacional: 12.3.
Match halves
CD Tondela: half-time lead 10%, second-half goals 0.41. CD Nacional: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
CD Tondela: 0-15 (6 goals). CD Nacional: 61-75 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.69 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back an away win — CD Nacional holds a clear advantage in efficiency and form. This season Nacional has scored 32 goals versus Tondela’s 21, and in the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 3 goals and averaged 1.2 points per game compared to 2 goals and 0.4 points for the hosts. Nacional’s defense looks much better in the short term: the visitors conceded 4 goals in the last 5 matches, while Tondela conceded as many as 10, despite season-long averages of 1.27 goals conceded per home match for Tondela and 1.33 away for Nacional. Quality of chances favors Nacional — on average 4.33 shots on target per away match for the visitors versus 3.47 in Tondela’s home matches, visitors’ xG is 1.35 vs 1.23 for the hosts, and Tondela fail to score in 60% of home games versus 33% for Nacional. Considering these figures and Tondela’s high home draw rate (47%), I estimate the probabilities as: Nacional win 60%, draw 25%, Tondela win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I predict No BTTS with a 70% probability vs 30% for BTTS. Seasonally Tondela has BTTS in 47% of matches, Nacional in 53%, and the league average is 46%, giving a baseline around 50:50. However, in the last 5 matches Tondela has only 20% BTTS and scores on average 0.4 goals while conceding 2.0 per match (10 conceded total), whereas Nacional has 0% BTTS, scores 0.6 and concedes 0.8 (4 conceded total), which significantly lowers the likelihood of both teams scoring. Season xG for both teams is 1.35, but xG against is 1.62 for Tondela and 1.50 for Nacional; with similar 4.13 vs 4.33 shots on target and historical conversion 11% vs 6% it shows Tondela creates chances but fails to convert them in form. Based on these specific numbers the strongest signal from the data supports the 'No' scenario.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I project 1.40 goals for CD Tondela and 1.20 for CD Nacional, totaling approximately 2.60 goals, based on xG and seasonal averages. Both teams have identical attacking xG of 1.35, but Tondela shows higher shot conversion (11% vs 6%) with a comparable shot volume (12.2 vs 12.4), which raises the hosts' expected goals. Defenses are vulnerable: Tondela conceded 48 goals this season, Nacional 41, and Tondela has been conceding 2.0 goals on average in the last 5 matches, increasing the likelihood of more goals; the share of matches with both teams scoring is 47% for Tondela and 53% for Nacional. Seasonal shares of matches over 1.5 goals are 67% for Tondela and 73% for Nacional, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal; Over 2.5 is moderately likely (home >2.5 53% vs away 33% and league average 54%), while Over 3.5 appears unlikely (33%/7%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A half-time draw appears likely: both teams average 0.4 goals by half-time (scoredAVGHT_home 0.4, scoredAVGHT_away 0.4) and the average first-half goals is 0.93 (AVGHT 0.93), with Tondela posting 53% half-time draws versus 40% for Nacional. After the break Tondela holds a clear advantage — on average they score 0.93 goals post-break compared to Nacional’s 0.4 (scored_2hg_avg_home 0.93 vs away 0.4) and have collected 21 points in matches with second-half goals versus 13 points for the visitors (points_2hg_home 21 vs points_2hg_away 13). Seasonally the home side scores more goals per match (1.33 vs 0.8) and converts chances better (conversion rate 11% vs 6%), despite similar attacking xG (xG_for_avg 1.35 vs 1.35), so Tondela’s advantage is expected to manifest after the interval. For these reasons I assign the highest probability to the scenario Half-Time draw and Home win at Full-Time (X/1 27%), while scenarios with Nacional leading at half-time are judged less likely due to the visitors’ lower seasonal attacking efficiency.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| CD Tondela | CD Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
CD Nacional is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - CD Tondela · 1.2 pts / match - CD Nacional
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
CD Nacional is 49% better for: goals scored per match.
0.72 goals / match - CD Tondela · 1.07 goals / match - CD Nacional
CD Nacional is 21% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.66 goals / match - CD Tondela · 1.37 goals / match - CD Nacional
CD Tondela scores in 41% of matches (12 of 29 matches), while CD Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 20% (6 of 30 matches).
CD Nacional scores in 67% of matches (20 of 30 matches), while CD Tondela keeps a clean sheet in 17% (5 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - CD Tondela
Over / Under - CD Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
CD Nacional is 30% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.9 pts / match - CD Tondela · 1.17 pts / match - CD Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
CD Tondela - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 10% of matches and wins 14%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
CD Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 23%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
CD Tondela
CD Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| CD Tondela | Liga | CD Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.38 | 2.69 | ▼ 2.43 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 34% | 47% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 52% | 54% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 30% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 55% | 70% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 79% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: CD Tondela 0 - 0 - 1 CD Nacional. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of CD Tondela vs CD Nacional?
The Liga NOS match finished CD Tondela 0:2 CD Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before CD Tondela vs CD Nacional?
CD Tondela score 0.72 goals per game on average and CD Nacional 1.07. The Liga NOS average is 2.69 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 34% of CD Tondela's matches and 50% of CD Nacional's.
What form are CD Tondela and CD Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games CD Tondela have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and CD Nacional 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for CD Tondela vs CD Nacional?
The statistical background for CD Tondela vs CD Nacional — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.