CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz: match statistics

I predict a home win (1). CDS Tampico Madero has a 71% win rate at home, scores on average 1.71 goals and concedes only 0.82 goals per match, with a home goal difference of +15. Offensively the hosts create more chances: on average 14.71 shots and 4.41 on target per match with xG 1.54, while CA La Paz away averages 10.64 shots and 3.71 on target with xG 1.27. Defensively the hosts have a clear advantage — visitors concede on average 1.57 goals away and have xG against of 1.96, whereas the hosts have xG against 0.93 and 35% clean sheets at home. In the last 5 matches Tampico averaged 1.8 points per game (5 scored, 3 conceded), and La Paz 1.2 points per game (8 scored, 6 conceded), therefore I assess the probabilities as: home 70%, draw 18%, away 12%.

Seasonal metrics for both teams strongly support BTTS: Tampico has BTTS 57% and La Paz 64%, versus a league average of 56%. In the last 5 matches Tampico shows BTTS 60% with an average 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while La Paz posts BTTS 80% with 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, indicating visitors regularly score and hosts also typically find the net. Looking at xG and chance creation, the hosts have xG 1.91 and 7.07 shots on target per match, whereas La Paz has xG 1.27 and 3.71 shots on target; additionally La Paz concedes xG against 1.96, so the visitors’ defense is vulnerable to shots. Clean sheets occur for Tampico in 36% of games and for La Paz only in 21%, and Tampico fail to score in 7% of matches versus 21% for La Paz — this means the hosts rarely shut up shop while the visitors have a low rate of clean sheets. Summing these figures (seasonal and recent metrics average ≈60–70%), I project the BTTS — Yes scenario as more likely: 70% Yes, 30% No.

The xG model (home attack 1.91 vs away defense conceding 1.96) yields an expected 1.94 goals for CDS Tampico Madero, while the combination of La Paz attack 1.27 and home defense conceding 1.40 gives 1.33 goals for the visitors; total xG = 3.27. Seasonal metrics confirm high goal potential: Tampico has Over 1.5 in 93% of matches and Over 2.5 in 64%, La Paz has Over 1.5 in 79% and Over 2.5 in 50%, and the league records Over 2.5 in 54% of fixtures. Additionally both teams frequently score (BTTS 57% for the home side and 64% for the visitors) and in the last 5 matches they scored 5 and 8 goals respectively; the hosts average 7.07 shots on target versus 3.71 for the guests. A Poisson simulation with mean 3.27 indicates probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈84%, Over 2.5 ≈63% and Over 3.5 ≈41%. Therefore the strongest play is Over 1.5 (over) at the 1.5 line.

The most likely scenario is 1/1 (51%), because the home side led at the break in 7 matches (50% of the season) and in 3 of the last 5 fixtures (60%). This is supported by attacking metrics: home xG 1.91 versus away 1.27, an average of 16.07 shots and 7.07 shots on target per game compared to 10.64 and 3.71 for CA La Paz, and the homes’ average goals at half-time is 1.00 versus 0.86 for opponents. At full-time the home team wins 43% of matches and averages 1.64 points per game versus 21% and 1.14 points for the away side, while the visitors concede an average of 1.96 xG against, which favors the retention of the home lead. There is a risk of a turnaround, since BTTS is 57% for the home team and 64% for the visitors, but the hosts have 64% clean halves at the break and did not concede before half-time in the last 5 matches (0.0), reducing the likelihood of a rapid away comeback. Therefore the recommendation is 1/1 as the strongest and most consistent signal from the presented data.