CDS Tampico Madero vs Tepatitlán de Morelos: match statistics

The hosts have strong home credentials: they have won 74% of matches at their stadium and score 1.74 goals per game on average with an average xG of 1.54 and only 0.79 goals conceded per game. In the last 5 matches CDS Tampico Madero has recorded 4 wins and 1 draw, averaging 2.6 points per game, while the visitors have averaged 1.2 points per game in this period (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss). Tepatitlán as an away team wins only 17% of matches and draws 56%, scores 1.11 goals per away game on average and fails to score in 39% of away fixtures; over the full season they have 48 goals scored versus 53 for the hosts. The hosts create more chances (14.74 shots on average vs 12.0 for the visitors) and have a higher shot conversion rate (12% vs 9%), and their average xG against is 0.88 compared to 1.40 for the visitors, indicating a more secure defense. Based on these figures I predict a home win; I set the probability distribution at approximately 62% for the hosts, 26% for a draw and 12% for the visitors.

In the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of cases; seasonally CDS has BTTS at 44%, Tepatitlán 56%, and the league average is 56%. CDS scores on average 1.56 goals and has 53 scored versus 35 conceded this season, while Tepatitlán scores 1.11 and has 48 scored versus 33 conceded, which together yield a realistic goal potential from both sides. xG values are 1.76 for the home side versus 1.45 for the away team, and xG against is 1.24 (CDS) and 1.40 (Tepatitlán), so both teams generate chances that can translate into goals. A conflicting signal is CDS’s higher clean sheet rate of 44% versus 22% for the visitors and seasonal goals conceded averages of 0.72 (CDS) and 1.11 (Tepatitlán), which slightly reduce BTTS probability but do not negate the offensive indicators. Considering the weight of the last 5 matches (60%), the league average 56% and positive xG for both teams, I assess BTTS at 60% vs 40% and recommend a BTTS - Yes.

I project the home team to score approximately 1.58 goals and the away team approximately 1.35 goals (total 2.93), calculated as the average of attack xG and the opponent’s defensive xG: home 1.76 xG versus 1.40 xG conceded by away, and away 1.45 xG versus 1.24 xG conceded by home. Applying a Poisson distribution to a total of 2.93, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 79%, and the probability of at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) is about 56%. Additionally, the home side averages 14.83 shots and 5.33 on target per match with a 10% conversion rate; the away side averages 12.0 shots and 4.78 on target with a 9% conversion—supporting offensive demand for goals. Historically, homes have 78% of matches with over 1.5 goals and away teams 61%; over 2.5 occurs in 39% and 28% respectively, so the signal for Over 1.5 is clearer than for Over 2.5. Based on the above figures, the best selection is Over on the 1.5 line.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). The home team have won 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and have a seasonal win rate of 56% versus the visitors’ 17%, which strongly supports their victory over 90 minutes. I expect a draw at the break because in 4 of the last 5 meetings the home side were level at half-time (80%); seasonally they average 0.72 goals by the break versus 0.44 for the away team, and in the last 5 matches the home side have scored only 0.2 goals on average by half-time, so the first half is often low-scoring. The home advantage after the break is supported by xG 1.76 vs 1.45 in their favor and better shooting metrics (14.83 shots and 5.33 on target for the home side vs 12.0 and 4.78 for the visitors); additionally, in the second half the home team seasonally score 1.11 goals on average, and 1.4 in the last 5 matches versus 1.0 for the away side, while conceding less (0.2 vs 0.4 in the last 5), which favors overturning a draw. Therefore X/1 received the highest probability in the distribution (34%), while the scenario of the away side leading at half-time and winning is rated low due to the visitors’ seasonal win rate of only 17%.