Celje vs Aluminij: match statistics
Celje vs Aluminij: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Celje played Aluminij in PrvaLiga (Slovenia). The match was played on 26 April 2026. Final score: 5:0.
Current form
Celje: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. Aluminij: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Celje scores 2.43 and concedes 0.90 goals per match. Aluminij scores 1.40 and concedes 1.73. League average: 3.10 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Celje 53%, Aluminij 77%. Over 2.5: Celje 67%, Aluminij 73%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
Celje has higher xG: 1.79 vs 1.33. Celje: 14.2 shots per match, Aluminij: 9.6.
Match halves
Celje: half-time lead 63%, second-half goals 1.37. Aluminij: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.93.
Goals by minute
Celje: 76-90+ (18 goals). Aluminij: 76-90+ (17 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
PrvaLiga: 3.10 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-1. Average goals 3.67, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Celje is the clear favorite: they sit 1st in the table versus Aluminij's 7th and have 21 wins this season compared to the visitors' 10. At home Celje average 2.5 goals scored and concede only 0.5 per match, while Aluminij away score 1.43 and concede 1.71, giving the hosts a significant advantage both offensively and defensively. In the last 5 matches Celje have won 5, scoring 13 and conceding 2, averaging 3 points per game, whereas Aluminij have 2 wins, 5 scored and 6 conceded with an average of 1.2 points per game. Additionally Celje create more chances: on average 16.64 shots and 6.64 on target at home with xG 2.07, while Aluminij average 9.36 shots, 3.57 on target and xG 1.32 away. Considering a 79% home win rate for Celje, a 50% clean sheet rate and virtually 0% home loss rate, I predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I recommend BTTS - Yes — both teams display very high season BTTS rates: Celje 75% and Aluminij 79% versus a league average of 60%. Both sides generate similar xG: Celje 1.34 and Aluminij 1.32, while conceding substantial xG against: Celje 1.88 and Aluminij 1.85, indicating both create chances and are vulnerable to conceding. Low clean sheet expected figures (Celje 13%, Aluminij 14%) and solid shooting stats — 9.88/4.06 (shots/shots on target) for Celje and 9.36/3.57 for Aluminij — increase the likelihood of goals from both teams. Mitigating factors include Celje’s recent form with BTTS in only 40% of last 5 matches and an average of 0.4 goals conceded, which could suppress Aluminij’s chances, but Aluminij scored 5 and conceded 6 in their last 5 (avg 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded), so they still produce goals. Overall, seasonal trends 75%/79%, a high share of over 2.5 matches with BTTS (69% at home and 64% away) and a league average of 3.08 goals per match provide a strong signal for BTTS.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on seasonal xG: Celje has an attacking xG of 1.34 while Aluminij concedes an average xG against of 1.85 — the mean of these values yields about 1.60 goals for Celje; similarly Aluminij (attacking xG 1.32 vs Celje xG against 1.88) comes out around ~1.60, giving a combined total of 3.20 goals. Seasonal shares of matches with over 1.5 goals are 81% for Celje and 100% for Aluminij (average 90.5%), and over 2.5 goals stand at 75% and 71% (average 73%), so both lines lean toward Over. Additionally both teams have high BTTS: 75% (Celje) and 79% (Aluminij), and Celje has scored 13 goals in the last 5 matches (2.6 avg) while conceding only 2 (0.4), which increases the likelihood of further goals. The 3.5 line is clearly less certain — seasonal values 38% and 21% give an average of ~30% for Over 3.5, i.e. a much lower probability. The strongest play signal is Over 1.5, because both the modelled xG 1.60+1.60=3.20 and the high Over1.5 percentages (~90.5%) along with BTTS 75–79% indicate a high chance of more than 1.5 goals in the match.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Celje have been very strong in the recent period: they have won 5 of 5 matches (100%) and held a lead at the break in all of those games (5/5, 100%), averaging 1.4 goals before half-time and conceding 0.2. Over the season xG is almost equal (1.34 for Celje vs 1.32 for Aluminij), but the hosts register more on-target shots on average (4.06 vs 3.57) and have a half-time goals average of 0.63 compared to the visitors’ 0.29, which favors a scenario where the hosts lead at the break. Season-long data show the hosts led at half-time in 6 of 16 matches (38%), while the visitors did so in only 1 of 14 (7%), so historically the first half has tended to favor Celje; combined with the form in the last 5 matches this provides a strong HT 1 signal. It should be noted, however, that the visitors can score late goals (12 strikes in minutes 76–90) and both teams frequently score during the season (75% of the hosts’ matches see both teams scoring vs 79% for the visitors), so a turnaround after the break is realistic. Given Celje’s low number of goals conceded after half-time in the last 5 matches (an average of 0.2), the most likely and strongest signal is the hosts leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Celje | Aluminij | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Celje is 275% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / match - Celje · 0.8 pts / match - Aluminij
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Celje is 74% better for: goals scored per match.
2.43 goals / match - Celje · 1.4 goals / match - Aluminij
Celje is 92% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.9 goals / match - Celje · 1.73 goals / match - Aluminij
Celje scores in 90% of matches (27 of 30 matches), while Aluminij keeps a clean sheet in 13% (4 of 30 matches).
Aluminij scores in 87% of matches (26 of 30 matches), while Celje keeps a clean sheet in 43% (13 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Celje
Over / Under - Aluminij
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Celje is 109% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.03 pts / match - Celje · 0.97 pts / match - Aluminij
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Celje - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 63% of matches and wins 70%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Aluminij - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 0% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (18 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +14 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (17 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Celje
Aluminij
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (PrvaLiga).
Teams vs league
| Celje | Liga | Aluminij | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.33 | 3.10 | • 3.13 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 53% | 60% | ▲ 77% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 64% | ▲ 73% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 43% | 22% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 93% | 86% | ▼ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 80% | ▼ 77% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Celje 2 - 0 - 1 Aluminij. Average goals 3.67, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Celje vs Aluminij?
The PrvaLiga match finished Celje 5:0 Aluminij. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Celje and Aluminij?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Celje won 2, Aluminij won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Celje vs Aluminij?
Celje score 2.43 goals per game on average and Aluminij 1.40. The PrvaLiga average is 3.10 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 53% of Celje's matches and 77% of Aluminij's.
What form are Celje and Aluminij in?
Over the last 5 games Celje have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Aluminij 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Celje vs Aluminij?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.