Central Norte vs San Miguel: match statistics
Central Norte vs San Miguel: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Central Norte played San Miguel in Prim B Nacional (Argentina). The match was played on 5 July 2026. Venue: Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Central Norte: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. San Miguel: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Central Norte scores 0.61 and concedes 0.89 goals per match. San Miguel scores 0.89 and concedes 1.06. League average: 1.87 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Central Norte 33%, San Miguel 44%. Over 2.5: Central Norte 17%, San Miguel 28%. League level: BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 30%.
xG, shots and style
San Miguel has higher xG: 1.40 vs 1.21. Central Norte: 9.8 shots per match, San Miguel: 10.6.
Match halves
Central Norte: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.22. San Miguel: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.56.
Goals by minute
Central Norte: 0-15 (4 goals). San Miguel: 46-60 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prim B Nacional: 1.87 goals per match, BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 30%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a draw as the most likely outcome: Central Norte concedes only 0.75 goals per home match on average and has 50% clean sheets, while San Miguel has won only 11% of away games and 67% of their away fixtures ended in draws. Visitors are in better short-term form — they average 1.8 points per match and scored 6 goals in the last 5 games, whereas the hosts average 1.0 point per match and 3 goals in that period. Central Norte creates more chances at home: on average 4.75 shots on target and xG 1.34 versus 2.56 shots on target and xG 1.11 for San Miguel away, although San Miguel has a slightly higher finishing rate (9% vs 7%). The hosts’ advantage remains their home defense (0.75 goals conceded on average and home goal difference GD 0), while San Miguel concedes 1.33 goals on average away and has a negative away goal difference (GD -5), which reduces the probability of an away win. Therefore I assign a 45% probability to a draw, 35% to a home win and 20% to an away win, expecting a low-scoring result (0:0 or 1:1).
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have seasonal BTTS at 44% (Central Norte 44%, San Miguel 44%) and in the last 5 matches BTTS was 40% for both sides, giving a baseline signal of about 40–44% probability for both teams to score. However, the league BTTS rate is lower (38%) and the league is characterized by a very high share of clean sheets (80%), with Central Norte keeping a clean sheet in 44% of matches, which reduces the chance of BTTS. San Miguel failed to score in 44% of league matches this season, although in the last 5 games they scored 6 goals (avg 1.2), providing a mixed but weaker attacking signal from the away side. Central Norte creates more chances (12.67 shots and 3.22 on target vs 8.44 and 2.56 for San Miguel) and has higher xG (1.70 vs 1.11), so they generate goals more often, but conversion remains low (8% vs 9%). Considering the low league BTTS of 38%, the high share of San Miguel non-scoring games (44%) and the hosts’ 44% clean sheets, I assess the No BTTS scenario as more likely and assign BTTS 38% (Yes) / 62% (No).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The analysis is based on xG: Central Norte has an attacking xG of 1.70, while San Miguel concedes on average 1.38 xG, yielding approximately 1.54 expected goals for the home side; San Miguel has xG of 1.11, and Central Norte’s defense concedes 1.23 xG, yielding 1.17 expected goals for the visitors. Total expected goals equal 2.71, which in a Poisson model translates to ~75% probability of Over 1.5, ~51% for Over 2.5 and ~29% for Over 3.5. Seasonal rates confirm the direction: Central Norte have 67% of matches with over 1.5 goals, San Miguel 78%, while over 2.5 occurs less frequently (22% for Central Norte and 33% for San Miguel). However, low finishing rates must be considered — Central Norte scores on average 1.0 goals with xG 1.70 (difference 0.70) and has a shot conversion of 8%, and San Miguel 0.78 goals with xG 1.11 (difference 0.33), which may limit the number of converted chances. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is backing Over 1.5 (the Over side on the 1.5 line), since both the 2.71 xG and seasonal 67–78% Over 1.5 rates favor this option.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). The home side has a clear offensive advantage: xG 1.7 versus the visitors’ 1.11 and an average of 12.67 shots per match versus 8.44, which increases the chances of goals in the second half. Half-time statistics show a draw in 44% of matches, the home team leading at the break in 33% (3 games), and the home side recording 78% clean halves HT, suggesting many matches are goalless at half-time. In the second half the home team scores on average 0.67 goals while the visitors concede on average 0.78 goals after the break, and the home side registers >0.5 goals in the 2nd half in 78% of matches — this raises the probability of a turnaround after the break in favor of Central Norte. Although the visitors have not lost in their last 5 matches (0% defeats) and average 1.8 points per game in that period, their low season away win percentage (11%) limits their prospects, therefore X/1 is the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Central Norte | San Miguel | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 27% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
San Miguel is 80% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Central Norte · 1.8 pts / match - San Miguel
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
San Miguel is 46% better for: goals scored per match.
0.61 goals / match - Central Norte · 0.89 goals / match - San Miguel
Central Norte is 19% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.89 goals / match - Central Norte · 1.06 goals / match - San Miguel
Central Norte scores in 50% of matches (9 of 18 matches), while San Miguel keeps a clean sheet in 39% (7 of 18 matches).
San Miguel scores in 67% of matches (12 of 18 matches), while Central Norte keeps a clean sheet in 33% (6 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Central Norte
Over / Under - San Miguel
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Central Norte - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 22%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
San Miguel - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Central Norte
San Miguel
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prim B Nacional).
Teams vs league
| Central Norte | Liga | San Miguel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.50 | 1.87 | • 1.94 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 40% | ▲ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 17% | 30% | ▼ 28% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 33% | 39% | • 39% |
| Goal before half-time | • 56% | 56% | ▲ 61% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 70% | ▲ 72% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Central Norte 0 - 0 - 1 San Miguel. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Central Norte vs San Miguel?
The Prim B Nacional match finished Central Norte 1:1 San Miguel. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Central Norte vs San Miguel?
Central Norte score 0.61 goals per game on average and San Miguel 0.89. The Prim B Nacional average is 1.87 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 30% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Central Norte's matches and 44% of San Miguel's.
What form are Central Norte and San Miguel in?
Over the last 5 games Central Norte have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and San Miguel 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Central Norte vs San Miguel?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.