Ceuta vs Real Valladolid: match statistics

Ceuta have lost all 5 of their matches so far, scoring just 2 goals and conceding as many as 15, which highlights serious problems at both ends of the pitch. At home, the hosts have yet to score, despite averaging 18.5 shots and registering an xG of 1.86, while their finishing has remained ineffective. Real Valladolid have also struggled offensively, but they have collected 4 points from their last five matches, with a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, whereas Ceuta have failed to earn a single point. Away from home, the visitors concede an average of 1.33 goals with an xGA of 1.06, clearly better figures than Ceuta’s 2 goals conceded per match. Given both teams’ poor finishing, a draw is a realistic possibility, but Valladolid’s stronger defence and slightly more consistent form give the visitors the edge.

The strongest signal points toward BTTS - No, as Ceuta have recorded 0% of matches with both teams scoring this season, while Real Valladolid have recorded just 33%. Both teams are highly ineffective in front of goal: the hosts average 0.50 goals per match and the visitors 0.33, while in their last five fixtures both sides managed only 0.40 goals per game. Valladolid failed to score in 67% of their matches, whereas Ceuta kept a clean sheet in 50% of fixtures, clearly increasing the likelihood that at least one team will remain goalless. Recent form also supports this selection, with BTTS occurring in only 40% of Ceuta’s last five matches and 20% of Valladolid’s games. Although the teams’ xG figures stand at 1.12 and 1.32 respectively, exceptionally low shot-conversion rates—5% for the hosts and 3% for the visitors—further reduce the probability of both sides scoring.

The strongest signal is the low-scoring potential of both teams: Ceuta averages 0.50 goals, while Real Valladolid averages just 0.33. In their last five matches, both teams scored only 0.4 goals per game, despite recording average xG figures of 1.21 and 1.24, respectively. Neither team has played a match with at least 4 goals so far, and fewer than 3.5 goals occurred in 100% of their league matches. Valladolid has seen Under 2.5 goals in 100% of its matches, while Ceuta reached this line in only 50% of games, mainly due to a weak defense conceding an average of 1.5 goals. The quality of chances favors the visitors, but the low conversion rate of both attacks points instead to a result in the 0–3 goals range, making Under 3.5 the best choice.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Real Valladolid win after the match, as the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their last five games, while Ceuta were behind at half-time in 80% of cases. Ceuta are in a very poor run of five consecutive defeats, scoring just 0.4 goals per game on average and conceding as many as 3.0; over the same period, Valladolid have conceded significantly fewer, at 1.4 goals per match. The hosts scored only 0.2 goals per game before half-time in their last five appearances, while the visitors allowed their opponents 0.4, which points towards a cautious and evenly matched opening. After the interval, Ceuta have conceded an average of 2.0 goals in their last five matches, so even if the score is level at half-time, the result is more likely to turn in Valladolid’s favour.