Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison: match statistics
Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Charlotte Independence played Forward Madison in USL League One (United States). The match was played on 23 May 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Charlotte Independence: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Forward Madison: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Charlotte Independence scores 2.00 and concedes 1.29 goals per match. Forward Madison scores 1.33 and concedes 1.17. League average: 2.76 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Charlotte Independence 71%, Forward Madison 50%. Over 2.5: Charlotte Independence 71%, Forward Madison 50%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 57%.
xG, shots and style
Charlotte Independence has higher xG: 1.85 vs 1.26. Charlotte Independence: 15.7 shots per match, Forward Madison: 10.2.
Match halves
Charlotte Independence: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.57. Forward Madison: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.33.
Goals by minute
Charlotte Independence: 0-15 (5 goals). Forward Madison: 16-30 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL League One: 2.76 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 57%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-2-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Charlotte Independence have a clear home advantage — they have won 100% of home matches, average 2.5 goals per game and concede 0.0 on average, while Forward Madison score 1.33 goals away and concede 1.17. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 9 goals and average 2.2 points per game (form: W D W W D), whereas the visitors have scored 7 goals and average only 0.8 points per game in their last 5 (form: D L W L L), which clearly indicates superior form for Charlotte. In terms of chance quality, Charlotte average 17 shots and 7 on target at home with xG 1.94, while Forward away average 10.17 shots and 3.5 on target with xG 1.26, suggesting a higher quantity and quality of opportunities for the hosts. Defensively the hosts have 100% clean sheets at home with average xG against 1.18 (i.e. they concede fewer goals than xG suggests), whereas the visitors have conceded 10 goals in their last 5 matches and record only 17% clean sheets on the road. Considering the advantage in chance creation and conversion and the form differential (2.2 vs 0.8 points in the last 5), I tip a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The "BTTS - Yes" scenario is more likely: the home side have BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches (4/5) while the visitors have 60% (3/5) — averaging 70%. In their last 5 matches the home team scored on average 1.8 goals and conceded 1.0, whereas Forward Madison averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, i.e. homes provide 1.8 goals against a visitor defense conceding 2.0, and visitors can score 1.4 against a home defense conceding 1.0. xG analysis supports this: the home side have 1.62 xG per match and 1.61 xG against over the last 5, the visitors 1.3 xG and 1.64 xG against, indicating both teams create chances and are exposed to conceding. Additionally, league BTTS rate is 57%, the visitors’ season BTTS is 50%, and the home form 'wdwwd' with 9 goals in 5 matches vs the visitors' 7 goals confirms an offensive edge. Therefore I assess 72% for "Yes" and 28% for "No" as the optimal tip to play.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The analysis is based on the last five matches: Charlotte scores an average of 1.8 goals (9 goals in 5 matches), while Forward Madison scores 1.4 goals (7 in 5), indicating offensive activity on both sides. xG over the last 5 matches is 1.62 for Charlotte and 1.30 for Madison, hence projected xG 1.62 vs 1.30 and a total of 2.92, above the league average of 2.77. Both teams frequently score: the percentage of matches with Both Teams to Score is 80% for Charlotte and 60% for Madison, and Over 2.5 Goals occurred in 60% of the last five matches for both sides. Home form wdwwd versus away form dlwll and the fact that Madison concedes an average of 2.0 goals in the last 5 matches (vs 1.0 for Charlotte) further support a higher goal count. Therefore I recommend Over 2.5 Goals as the strongest signal: projected xG 2.92 and historical 60% occurrence of Over 2.5 support Over 2.5 (I estimate Over 2.5 at 56%, Over 1.5 at 79% and Over 3.5 at 33%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal indicates Charlotte leading at half-time and the home team winning (1/1): in the last 5 matches Charlotte led at the break in 60% of games (3 of 5), while Forward Madison led at the break in only 20% (1 of 5). In those 5 matches the hosts averaged 1.4 goals by half-time and 1.8 goals per match, conceding 0.6 goals by the break on average; the visitors averaged 0.8 goals by half-time and 1.4 per match, while conceding 0.8 goals by the break. Form confirms this: Charlotte in the last 5 matches has 3 wins and 2 draws (60% wins), and Forward Madison has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (20% wins). On the season Forward Madison averages 1.33 goals per match and an xG of 1.26, whereas season data for Charlotte shows 0.0 (no attempts), so I place greater emphasis on the most recent 5 matches. Given the 60% rate of the hosts leading at the break and 60% win rate over the last 5, the 1/1 scenario appears the strongest signal and receives the highest probability in my forecast.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Charlotte Independence | Forward Madison | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Charlotte Independence is 50% better for: goals scored per match.
2 goals / match - Charlotte Independence · 1.33 goals / match - Forward Madison
Forward Madison is 10% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.29 goals / match - Charlotte Independence · 1.17 goals / match - Forward Madison
Charlotte Independence scores in 100% of matches (7 of 7 matches), while Forward Madison keeps a clean sheet in 17% (1 of 6 matches).
Forward Madison scores in 67% of matches (4 of 6 matches), while Charlotte Independence keeps a clean sheet in 29% (2 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Charlotte Independence
Over / Under - Forward Madison
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Forward Madison is 28% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.43 pts / match - Charlotte Independence · 1.83 pts / match - Forward Madison
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Charlotte Independence - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Forward Madison - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Charlotte Independence
Forward Madison
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL League One).
Teams vs league
| Charlotte Independence | Liga | Forward Madison | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.29 | 2.76 | ▼ 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 71% | 58% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 71% | 57% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 24% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 86% | 75% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 78% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Charlotte Independence 0 - 2 - 0 Forward Madison. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison?
The USL League One match finished Charlotte Independence 3:1 Forward Madison. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlotte Independence and Forward Madison?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Charlotte Independence won 0, Forward Madison won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison?
Charlotte Independence score 2.00 goals per game on average and Forward Madison 1.33. The USL League One average is 2.76 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 57% of games. Both teams score in 71% of Charlotte Independence's matches and 50% of Forward Madison's.
What form are Charlotte Independence and Forward Madison in?
Over the last 5 games Charlotte Independence have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Forward Madison 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.