Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai SIPG: match statistics

Chongqing Tongliang Long have a clearly stronger home profile: they average 1.4 goals scored and concede only 1.0, while Shanghai SIPG score 1.2 goals away from home and allow opponents 1.6. The hosts also create higher-quality chances, recording an average xG of 1.17 while conceding just 0.96 xG, compared with 1.06 and 1.45 respectively in the visitors’ away matches. Chongqing’s advantage is further supported by their home results: a 40% win rate, only 10% defeats and 40% clean sheets, whereas Shanghai lose 50% of their away games and keep a clean sheet in just 10%. Both teams have identical records over their last five matches, with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats each, but the hosts have conceded 5 goals during this period compared with 6 for the visitors. A draw remains a realistic outcome, as Chongqing shared the points in 50% of their home matches; however, the more stable defence and superior chance quality point towards a home win.

Both teams have recorded the same high rate of matches with goals scored by both sides this season: 70%, compared with the league average of 64%. Chongqing score an average of 1.8 goals and generate 1.74 xG per match, while Shanghai concede an average of 1.6 goals and allow 1.45 xG at their own end. The visitors are less consistent in attack, averaging 1.2 goals and 1.06 xG, but the hosts have kept a clean sheet in only 20% of their matches, giving Shanghai a realistic route to scoring. Chongqing’s last five matches weaken the signal, as the team scored only 4 goals during that run and BTTS landed in 40% of games; however, Shanghai have recorded 1.59 xG and BTTS in 60% of matches over the same period. The advantage in seasonal attacking metrics, combined with both defences’ poor clean-sheet records, points slightly towards BTTS - Yes.

The season profile points to solid scoring potential: the home team averages 1.8 goals scored, while the visitors concede 1.6, with 90% of the home team’s matches and 70% of the visitors’ games going Over 1.5 goals. The hosts create an average of 1.74 xG from 14.8 shots per match, clearly above the visitors’ 1.06 xG and 8.1 shots, supporting the prediction of at least two goals. Both teams regularly allow opponents to score, with the hosts conceding in 80% of their matches and the visitors in 90%, while 70% of games involving either team have seen both teams score. Caution at higher lines is warranted based on the hosts’ last five appearances, which produced only 0.8 goals scored per match and never went Over 2.5 goals. Therefore, the strongest signal is Over 1.5: the projected 2.55 goals give this selection a clearer edge than an Over 2.5 bet.

Shanghai SIPG have had a clearly stronger start to matches recently: they were leading at the break in 3 of their last 5 games, while Chongqing Tongliang Long were trailing at half-time in 3 of their last 5. The visitors have recently averaged 1.0 goals scored before the break and conceded just 0.2, whereas the hosts have managed only 0.2 goals in this period while conceding 0.6. After the interval, however, the advantage should shift towards Chongqing, who average 1.2 goals scored in the second half over the season and concede 0.5, while Shanghai concede as many as 1.3 goals after half-time despite scoring just 0.6. In addition, the hosts have a higher season xG, 1.74 compared with 1.06, and average 14.8 shots per match versus their opponents’ 8.1, supporting the scenario of a turnaround and a win by the final whistle.