Colegiales vs Deportivo Maipú: match statistics

Colegiales have been highly solid at home: they have won 58% of their matches, lost just 8%, and average 1.58 goals per game. The hosts concede only 0.67 goals on their own ground, keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances, while Deportivo Maipú allow opponents an average of 1.38 goals away from home. The difference is also reflected in chance quality: Colegiales generate 1.45 xG at home against 1.33 xG conceded, whereas Maipú record just 1.17 xG away and allow 1.64. The visitors have been effective recently, winning 3 of their last 5 matches and scoring 7 goals in that run, but they have lost as many as 54% of their away fixtures and failed to score in 31% of them. Colegiales’ form is also stable, with 2 wins and 2 draws in their last five league rounds, so home advantage should tip the result in the hosts’ favor.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Colegiales keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches and concede just 0.69 goals per home game. The hosts have recorded BTTS in only 31% of their matches this season, well below Deportivo Maipú’s 62% and the league average of 40%. In their last five appearances, both teams recorded BTTS in 40% of matches, but Colegiales scored only 1.0 goal per game, while their opponents averaged just 8.46 shots. Deportivo Maipú score an average of 1.31 goals, but their xG stands at 1.17, while the hosts have a favourable defensive record and limit their opponents effectively. Therefore, the more likely scenario is that at least one team—primarily the visitors—will fail to score.

Colegiales concede just 0.69 goals per match at home and keeps a clean sheet in 46% of games, which significantly limits Deportivo Maipú’s attacking potential. The visitors score an average of 1.31 goals, but their created xG stands at 1.17, while the hosts allow opponents just 1.26 xG. Across the season, Colegiales matches have finished with Under 3.5 goals in 77% of cases, compared with 69% for Deportivo Maipú; the league also has a low average of 1.95 goals per match. Over their last five games, both teams have recorded Over 2.5 goals in 40% of matches, but their combined goal figures point to a moderate tempo. Therefore, the projected total of 2.30 goals provides a clear edge to the Under 3.5 goals option.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Colegiales victory at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 69% of their matches, while both teams recorded this outcome in 60% of their last five games. The first halves are expected to be cautious: Colegiales concede an average of just 0.31 goals before the break, compared with 0.38 for Deportivo Maipú, while their matches feature only 0.85 and 1.08 total goals respectively during this period. After half-time, the hosts’ advantage should increase, as they score an average of 0.77 goals in the second half, while the visitors concede as many as 1.00. Across the season, Colegiales have won 62% of their matches and average 2.00 points, whereas Deportivo Maipú have lost 54% of their games and concede an average of 1.38 goals away from home. Additionally, the hosts create chances worth 1.62 xG per match, more than the visitors’ 1.17 xG, while Maipú’s defence allows opponents 1.64 xG.