Columbus Crew II vs New York City II: match statistics

Columbus Crew II have a clear home advantage: they have won 70% of their home matches, average 2.0 goals scored there, and lose in only 10% of cases. New York City II win 40% of their away matches but lose as many as half of them, while their average of 1.6 goals scored is lower than the hosts’ output. Crew II are more clinical in front of goal, converting 16% of their shots compared with 13% for the visitors, and they are less likely to fail to score — 10% versus 30%. However, the hosts’ recent form has been weaker, with just 5 points and 8 goals scored in their last five matches, while the visitors have collected 7 points and scored 10 goals. Despite similar chance-quality metrics, with the hosts’ xG at 1.58 compared with 1.50 for the visitors, Columbus’ home advantage and less vulnerable defence, conceding 1.1 goals per match compared with 1.5, support a home win.

Columbus Crew II records BTTS in 78% of their matches this season, well above the league average of 61%, while the figure stood at 80% across their last five games. New York City II has a lower season-long BTTS rate of 50%, but both teams scored in 60% of their last five matches, during which the side averaged 2.0 goals per game. The hosts concede an average of 1.67 goals per match and have kept a clean sheet in just 11% of their games, significantly increasing the visitors’ chances of scoring. At the same time, Columbus averages 1.56 goals scored, while the New York side allows opponents 1.50 goals per game; the xG figures for both attacks are 1.28 and 1.50, respectively. The last-five-match record, with each team conceding 8 goals, further supports the scenario of a goal for both sides—BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal.

Both teams profile as goal-friendly sides: Columbus average 1.56 goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while New York City II score 1.60 and allow opponents 1.50 goals. Across their last five matches, both teams averaged 3.2 total goals per game, with the 2.5 line being surpassed in 80% of matches for each side. New York City II have been particularly dangerous in attack recently, scoring 2.0 goals per game with an xG of 1.60, while Columbus allowed opponents an xG of 1.79. However, the Over 1.5 goals line has the strongest statistical support, having landed in 100% of Columbus matches and 70% of New York City II fixtures. In addition, the hosts have kept a clean sheet in only 11% of their appearances, significantly increasing the likelihood of at least two goals.

Columbus Crew II led at the break in 50% of their matches this season, compared with 30% for New York City II, while in their last five games the hosts were ahead at half-time in 75% of appearances. The Columbus side averages 0.88 goals scored and 0.63 conceded before the break, whereas the visitors score just 0.60 goals in this period and failed to find the net in as many as 70% of first halves. The hosts also have the stronger overall season record, averaging 1.67 points per match compared with their opponents’ 1.30, while NYC II have lost 50% of their games. Although the visitors have recently looked dangerous in attack, averaging 2.0 goals across their last five matches, Columbus should capitalise on their clear advantage in the opening phase and maintain it through to the final whistle. The scenario of the hosts leading at half-time and securing a full-time victory is therefore the strongest outcome supported by the data.