Connah's Quay vs Caernarfon Town: match statistics
Connah's Quay presents impressive home form with 64% wins and only 18% losses at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 2.55 goals per match at home, while maintaining a possession advantage of 59%. Caernarfon Town, despite solid away form (42% wins), is characterized by a high percentage of draws (42%), indicating difficulties in breaking down rivals on the road. The key factor is the difference in offensive efficiency – the hosts have a higher average xG (2.08 vs 1.47) and better shot conversion (17% vs 14%). The recent form of both teams (Connah's Quay: 2.2 pts/match vs Caernarfon: 1.6 pts/match) additionally speaks in favor of the hosts. Taking all statistics into account, I expect a victory for Connah's Quay, although the solid defense of the visitors (1.17 goals conceded away) may make this a close encounter with the possibility of a draw.
Connah's Quay vs Caernarfon Town: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Connah's Quay played Caernarfon Town in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The match was played on 6 February 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Connah's Quay: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Caernarfon Town: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Connah's Quay scores 2.17 and concedes 1.17 goals per match. Caernarfon Town scores 1.91 and concedes 1.39. League average: 3.09 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Connah's Quay 65%, Caernarfon Town 70%. Over 2.5: Connah's Quay 78%, Caernarfon Town 61%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 59%.
xG, shots and style
Connah's Quay has higher xG: 1.81 vs 1.56. Connah's Quay: 13.6 shots per match, Caernarfon Town: 12.7.
Match halves
Connah's Quay: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 1.26. Caernarfon Town: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 1.30.
Goals by minute
Connah's Quay: 76-90+ (12 goals). Caernarfon Town: 61-75 (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Welsh Premier League: 3.09 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 59%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Connah's Quay presents impressive home form with 64% wins and only 18% losses at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 2.55 goals per match at home, while maintaining a possession advantage of 59%. Caernarfon Town, despite solid away form (42% wins), is characterized by a high percentage of draws (42%), indicating difficulties in breaking down rivals on the road. The key factor is the difference in offensive efficiency – the hosts have a higher average xG (2.08 vs 1.47) and better shot conversion (17% vs 14%). The recent form of both teams (Connah's Quay: 2.2 pts/match vs Caernarfon: 1.6 pts/match) additionally speaks in favor of the hosts. Taking all statistics into account, I expect a victory for Connah's Quay, although the solid defense of the visitors (1.17 goals conceded away) may make this a close encounter with the possibility of a draw.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Connah's Quay | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 45% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Connah's Quay is 83% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / match - Connah's Quay · 1.2 pts / match - Caernarfon Town
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Connah's Quay is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
2.17 goals / match - Connah's Quay · 1.91 goals / match - Caernarfon Town
Connah's Quay is 19% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.17 goals / match - Connah's Quay · 1.39 goals / match - Caernarfon Town
Connah's Quay scores in 91% of matches (21 of 23 matches), while Caernarfon Town keeps a clean sheet in 17% (4 of 23 matches).
Caernarfon Town scores in 83% of matches (19 of 23 matches), while Connah's Quay keeps a clean sheet in 30% (7 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Connah's Quay
Over / Under - Caernarfon Town
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Connah's Quay is 45% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.7 pts / match - Connah's Quay · 1.17 pts / match - Caernarfon Town
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Connah's Quay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 61%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Caernarfon Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Connah's Quay
Caernarfon Town
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Connah's Quay | Liga | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.35 | 3.09 | ▲ 3.30 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 65% | 53% | ▲ 70% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 78% | 59% | ▲ 61% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 30% | 28% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 83% | 77% | ▼ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 91% | 75% | ▲ 87% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Connah's Quay 0 - 1 - 1 Caernarfon Town. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Connah's Quay vs Caernarfon Town?
The Welsh Premier League match finished Connah's Quay 1:1 Caernarfon Town. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Connah's Quay and Caernarfon Town?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Connah's Quay won 0, Caernarfon Town won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Connah's Quay vs Caernarfon Town?
Connah's Quay score 2.17 goals per game on average and Caernarfon Town 1.91. The Welsh Premier League average is 3.09 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 59% of games. Both teams score in 65% of Connah's Quay's matches and 70% of Caernarfon Town's.
What form are Connah's Quay and Caernarfon Town in?
Over the last 5 games Connah's Quay have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Caernarfon Town 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Connah's Quay vs Caernarfon Town?
The statistical background for Connah's Quay vs Caernarfon Town — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.