Connah's Quay vs Penybont: match statistics
Connah's Quay displays significantly better home form with a 54% win rate and an impressive goal difference of 56:33 this season. The hosts score an average of 2.31 goals per match at home with just 0% of matches failing to score, indicating an effective offense. Penybont is in terrible form with only 0.2 points per match in their last five games and a series of four defeats, conceding as many as 12 goals. The visitors have a negative goal difference away from home (-9) and a high concession rate (2.21 goals per match), which, combined with poor efficiency (1.57 goals on average), puts them in a difficult position. Considering the hosts' statistical advantage in possession (57% vs 48%), xG (2.03 vs 1.29), and the current form of both teams, a Connah's Quay victory is the most likely outcome of this match.
Connah's Quay vs Penybont: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Connah's Quay played Penybont in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The match was played on 21 March 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Connah's Quay: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Penybont: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Connah's Quay scores 2.00 and concedes 1.18 goals per match. Penybont scores 1.36 and concedes 1.54. League average: 2.95 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Connah's Quay 64%, Penybont 43%. Over 2.5: Connah's Quay 71%, Penybont 46%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Connah's Quay has higher xG: 1.76 vs 1.43. Connah's Quay: 13.1 shots per match, Penybont: 10.3.
Match halves
Connah's Quay: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 1.14. Penybont: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.89.
Goals by minute
Connah's Quay: 76-90+ (13 goals). Penybont: 46-60 (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Welsh Premier League: 2.95 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-0. Average goals 1.67, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Connah's Quay displays significantly better home form with a 54% win rate and an impressive goal difference of 56:33 this season. The hosts score an average of 2.31 goals per match at home with just 0% of matches failing to score, indicating an effective offense. Penybont is in terrible form with only 0.2 points per match in their last five games and a series of four defeats, conceding as many as 12 goals. The visitors have a negative goal difference away from home (-9) and a high concession rate (2.21 goals per match), which, combined with poor efficiency (1.57 goals on average), puts them in a difficult position. Considering the hosts' statistical advantage in possession (57% vs 48%), xG (2.03 vs 1.29), and the current form of both teams, a Connah's Quay victory is the most likely outcome of this match.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Connah's Quay | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 45% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Connah's Quay is 400% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Connah's Quay · 0.2 pts / match - Penybont
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Connah's Quay is 47% better for: goals scored per match.
2 goals / match - Connah's Quay · 1.36 goals / match - Penybont
Connah's Quay is 31% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.18 goals / match - Connah's Quay · 1.54 goals / match - Penybont
Connah's Quay scores in 86% of matches (24 of 28 matches), while Penybont keeps a clean sheet in 36% (10 of 28 matches).
Penybont scores in 64% of matches (18 of 28 matches), while Connah's Quay keeps a clean sheet in 29% (8 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Connah's Quay
Over / Under - Penybont
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Connah's Quay is 60% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.71 pts / match - Connah's Quay · 1.07 pts / match - Penybont
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Connah's Quay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 54%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Penybont - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -7 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (11 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Connah's Quay
Penybont
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Connah's Quay | Liga | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.18 | 2.95 | • 2.89 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 51% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 71% | 55% | ▼ 46% |
| Clean sheets | • 29% | 29% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | • 75% | 74% | ▼ 57% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 76% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Connah's Quay 2 - 1 - 0 Penybont. Average goals 1.67, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Connah's Quay vs Penybont?
The Welsh Premier League match finished Connah's Quay 2:1 Penybont. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Connah's Quay and Penybont?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Connah's Quay won 2, Penybont won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Connah's Quay vs Penybont?
Connah's Quay score 2.00 goals per game on average and Penybont 1.36. The Welsh Premier League average is 2.95 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Connah's Quay's matches and 43% of Penybont's.
What form are Connah's Quay and Penybont in?
Over the last 5 games Connah's Quay have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Penybont 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Connah's Quay vs Penybont?
The statistical background for Connah's Quay vs Penybont — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.