Connah's Quay vs The New Saints: match statistics
As the league leaders with 21 wins this season, The New Saints present significantly better form than Connah's Quay, who have recorded a streak of 5 draws without a win in their last 5 matches. The visitors boast an impressive away record with 75% of matches won and a +18 goal difference, while the hosts have won only 58% of their home games. The New Saints average 2.17 goals scored away and concede just 0.67, which, combined with 58% clean sheets, evidences a solid defense. Connah's Quay has shown mixed form in their last 5 home matches, conceding an average of 1.42 goals per match, which could be exploited by the visitors' effective attack. Possession advantage (64% vs 59%) and better xG efficiency (1.92 vs 2.05 for the hosts, but with better defensive xGA 0.89 vs 1.3) further support the forecast in favor of The New Saints. Considering all statistics, the visitors have a real chance of securing three points, although Connah's Quay's home form does not allow for a draw to be completely ruled out.
Connah's Quay vs The New Saints: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Connah's Quay played The New Saints in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The match was played on 3 March 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Connah's Quay: 0-4-1, 0.80 points/match. The New Saints: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Connah's Quay scores 1.96 and concedes 1.12 goals per match. The New Saints scores 2.69 and concedes 0.77. League average: 2.97 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Connah's Quay 62%, The New Saints 38%. Over 2.5: Connah's Quay 69%, The New Saints 65%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
The New Saints has higher xG: 2.12 vs 1.77. Connah's Quay: 13.2 shots per match, The New Saints: 16.7.
Match halves
Connah's Quay: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 1.12. The New Saints: half-time lead 65%, second-half goals 1.54.
Goals by minute
Connah's Quay: 76-90+ (12 goals). The New Saints: 46-60 (17 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Welsh Premier League: 2.97 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
As the league leaders with 21 wins this season, The New Saints present significantly better form than Connah's Quay, who have recorded a streak of 5 draws without a win in their last 5 matches. The visitors boast an impressive away record with 75% of matches won and a +18 goal difference, while the hosts have won only 58% of their home games. The New Saints average 2.17 goals scored away and concede just 0.67, which, combined with 58% clean sheets, evidences a solid defense. Connah's Quay has shown mixed form in their last 5 home matches, conceding an average of 1.42 goals per match, which could be exploited by the visitors' effective attack. Possession advantage (64% vs 59%) and better xG efficiency (1.92 vs 2.05 for the hosts, but with better defensive xGA 0.89 vs 1.3) further support the forecast in favor of The New Saints. Considering all statistics, the visitors have a real chance of securing three points, although Connah's Quay's home form does not allow for a draw to be completely ruled out.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Connah's Quay | The New Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 45% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
The New Saints is 275% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Connah's Quay · 3 pts / match - The New Saints
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
The New Saints is 37% better for: goals scored per match.
1.96 goals / match - Connah's Quay · 2.69 goals / match - The New Saints
The New Saints is 45% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.12 goals / match - Connah's Quay · 0.77 goals / match - The New Saints
Connah's Quay scores in 85% of matches (22 of 26 matches), while The New Saints keeps a clean sheet in 58% (15 of 26 matches).
The New Saints scores in 92% of matches (24 of 26 matches), while Connah's Quay keeps a clean sheet in 31% (8 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Connah's Quay
Over / Under - The New Saints
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
The New Saints is 30% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.69 pts / match - Connah's Quay · 2.19 pts / match - The New Saints
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Connah's Quay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 54%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
The New Saints - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 65% of matches and wins 81%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +7 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (17 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Connah's Quay
The New Saints
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Connah's Quay | Liga | The New Saints | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.08 | 2.97 | ▲ 3.46 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 62% | 51% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 69% | 55% | ▲ 65% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 31% | 29% | ▲ 58% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 77% | 74% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 75% | ▲ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Connah's Quay 1 - 0 - 1 The New Saints. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Connah's Quay vs The New Saints?
The Welsh Premier League match finished Connah's Quay 1:2 The New Saints. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Connah's Quay and The New Saints?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Connah's Quay won 1, The New Saints won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Connah's Quay vs The New Saints?
Connah's Quay score 1.96 goals per game on average and The New Saints 2.69. The Welsh Premier League average is 2.97 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 62% of Connah's Quay's matches and 38% of The New Saints's.
What form are Connah's Quay and The New Saints in?
Over the last 5 games Connah's Quay have a 0-4-1 record (0.80 points per game) and The New Saints 5-0-0 (3.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Connah's Quay vs The New Saints?
The statistical background for Connah's Quay vs The New Saints — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.