Correcaminos UAT vs Cancún: match statistics
Correcaminos UAT vs Cancún: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Correcaminos UAT played Cancún in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
Correcaminos UAT: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Cancún: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Correcaminos UAT scores 1.08 and concedes 2.12 goals per match. Cancún scores 1.63 and concedes 0.93. League average: 2.91 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Correcaminos UAT 68%, Cancún 52%. Over 2.5: Correcaminos UAT 64%, Cancún 48%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Cancún has higher xG: 1.41 vs 1.15. Correcaminos UAT: 9.0 shots per match, Cancún: 11.5.
Match halves
Correcaminos UAT: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 0.72. Cancún: half-time lead 48%, second-half goals 0.78.
Goals by minute
Correcaminos UAT: 76-90+ (10 goals). Cancún: 16-30 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.91 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorites are the visitors, Cancún: they have 13 wins and 44 goals this season versus Correcaminos’ 5 wins and 27 goals, clearly indicating superiority in points return and efficiency. The biggest gap is in defense — Cancún concedes 1.15 goals on average away with 31% clean sheets, while the hosts concede 2.08 at home and have only 8% clean sheets. Offensively both teams are similar: Correcaminos score 1.25 goals at home with xG 1.27 from 10 shots (4.08 on target), and Cancún away score 1.23 with xG 1.11 from 9.46 shots, so the visitors’ edge stems more from defensive organization than from chance creation. Additionally Correcaminos concede more than their xG suggests (avg xG against 1.6 vs actual 2.08 conceded), while Cancún have xG against 2.02 but concede only 1.15, indicating superior defensive efficiency for the visitors. Considering the higher away win rate for the visitors (46% vs 25% home wins) and the better goal differential (+1 vs -10), I back an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
A strong signal for BTTS - Yes comes from recent form: hosts had BTTS in 80% of last 5 matches (4/5) and Cancún in 100% (5/5), indicating regular goal exchanges. Over the season Correcaminos average 2.0 scored and 0.71 conceded, while Cancún average 1.23 scored and 1.15 conceded; season-long BTTS rates are 50% and 54% respectively, vs a league average of 56% — these figures support a moderate tendency toward both teams scoring. Additionally xG shows hosts with xG_for 1.69 versus guests’ xG_against 2.02 (the visitors concede a lot of expected chances), and the visitors have xG_for 1.11 versus hosts’ xG_against 1.27; together with shots on target 5.5 vs 3.69 and recent goals averages (last 5: hosts 1.4 scored/1.6 conceded, guests 1.6/1.6) this favors both sides finding the net. Although Correcaminos have a season clean sheet expected rate of 43% (which partially limits BTTS), the weight of recent-match signals and high xG against Cancún’s defense leads me to assess BTTS probability at 75% (Yes) and 25% (No), therefore I recommend a BTTS - Yes bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model forecasts 1.86 expected goals for Correcaminos and 1.19 for Cancún, totaling 3.05 xG — calculated as the average of home attack xG (1.69) and away conceded xG (2.02) and vice versa. This aligns with actual figures: Correcaminos score 2.0 goals on average at home, Cancún 1.23 away, and the share of matches with at least one goal is 93% and 92%. The last 5 matches further reinforce the scoring trend: both teams had 80% of matches over 2.5 goals, and both scored in 80% (home) and 100% (away) of those games. Using a Poisson distribution with lambda=3.05 yields P(Over 1.5) ≈81%, P(Over 2.5) ≈59% and P(Over 3.5) ≈37%, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5, also supported by season Over 1.5 rates: 71% for the home side and 62% for the visitors.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Correcaminos UAT led at half-time in 57% of their seasonal matches (8 times) and score on average 0.93 goals by the break versus 0.77 for Cancún, which supports the home side holding a lead at the break in about 45–50% of the analyzed scenarios. Over the full match the hosts average 2.00 goals versus 1.23 for Cancún, have xG of 1.69 compared to the opponents’ 1.11, while Cancún concedes as much as 2.02 xG, indicating a consistent offensive advantage for Correcaminos. Additionally, Correcaminos score on average 1.07 goals in the second half versus 0.46 for their opponents and have collected 29 points at half-time compared to 22 for Cancún, so maintaining or increasing the lead after the break is likely. On this basis the strongest signal is 1/1 with a 37% probability; the second option is a Half-Time draw and a home win (X/1) at 17%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Correcaminos UAT | Cancún | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Correcaminos UAT is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Correcaminos UAT · 1.2 pts / match - Cancún
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Cancún is 51% better for: goals scored per match.
1.08 goals / match - Correcaminos UAT · 1.63 goals / match - Cancún
Cancún is 128% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.12 goals / match - Correcaminos UAT · 0.93 goals / match - Cancún
Correcaminos UAT scores in 80% of matches (20 of 25 matches), while Cancún keeps a clean sheet in 37% (10 of 27 matches).
Cancún scores in 81% of matches (22 of 27 matches), while Correcaminos UAT keeps a clean sheet in 16% (4 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Correcaminos UAT
Over / Under - Cancún
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Cancún is 215% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.6 pts / match - Correcaminos UAT · 1.89 pts / match - Cancún
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Correcaminos UAT - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Cancún - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 48% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 0% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Correcaminos UAT
Cancún
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Correcaminos UAT | Liga | Cancún | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.20 | 2.91 | ▼ 2.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 68% | 56% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 64% | 53% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 16% | 26% | ▲ 37% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 74% | ▼ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 92% | 80% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Correcaminos UAT 0 - 0 - 1 Cancún. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Correcaminos UAT vs Cancún?
The Ascenso MX match finished Correcaminos UAT 1:3 Cancún. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Correcaminos UAT vs Cancún?
Correcaminos UAT score 1.08 goals per game on average and Cancún 1.63. The Ascenso MX average is 2.91 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 68% of Correcaminos UAT's matches and 52% of Cancún's.
What form are Correcaminos UAT and Cancún in?
Over the last 5 games Correcaminos UAT have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Cancún 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Correcaminos UAT vs Cancún?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Correcaminos UAT vs Cancún: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.