Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara: match statistics

I predict a home win because Cruz Azul averages 2.00 goals per home match with an average xG of 2.03, while Guadalajara scores 1.37 goals away (xG 1.50). Cruz Azul generates significantly more chances: 18.9 average shots and 6.5 on target per home game versus 14.32 and 4.11 for the visitors, with a conversion rate of 11% vs 10%. Defensively the hosts also perform better — Cruz Azul concedes 1.00 goal on average at home (xG against 0.97) and has 35% clean sheets, whereas Guadalajara concedes 1.47 goals away (xG against 1.16) and records only 21% clean sheets. Form favors the hosts: Cruz Azul has collected 2.2 pts/game in the last 5 matches (form ddwww), while Guadalajara has 1.6 pts/game (form wddlw), and the home goal difference for Cruz Azul is +20 versus away -2 for Guadalajara. Considering the xG advantage (2.03 vs 1.50), the number of shots on target (6.5 vs 4.11) and Cruz Azul’s low percentage of scoreless matches (5% vs 26%), I assess the probabilities as: home win ~65%, draw 20%, Guadalajara win 15%.

I assess BTTS - Yes probability at 65%: Cruz Azul averages 2.16 goals at home (xG 1.92), while Guadalajara averages 1.37 goals away (xG 1.50), indicating clear goal potential for both sides. League-wide BTTS occurs in 59% of matches; Guadalajara has a season BTTS of 58%, and Cruz has BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches (4/5) — although Guadalajara is at 20% in the same run, the combined signals favor Goal/Goal. Against this is the fact Cruz keeps a clean sheet in 53% of home games, so the risk of No Goal is material, even though Cruz concedes on average 1.0 goals in their last 5 matches. Shot and chance metrics also support BTTS: Cruz averages 6.16 shots on target with a 12% conversion versus Guadalajara’s 4.11 and 10%, and the total xG advantage is roughly 1.92 vs 1.50. Based on this I recommend Yes (65% vs 35%), noting that Cruz’s high rate of home clean sheets limits the strength of the recommendation.

Statistical analysis shows Cruz Azul has an attack with xG 1.92 and averages 2.16 goals per game, while Guadalajara has xG 1.50 and averages 1.37 goals. Combining the home attack (1.92) with the away defense (1.16) yields an expected 1.54 goals for Cruz Azul, and averaging the away attack (1.50) with the home defense (1.01) yields an expected 1.26 goals for Guadalajara, totaling 2.80 goals. Cruz Azul has 79% of matches Over 1.5 and 63% Over 2.5, Guadalajara has 68% and 58% respectively, and the league averages 2.92 goals per game; these figures support a higher-scoring scenario. Additionally, the hosts average 6.16 shots on target and 17.89 shots per game versus the visitors' 4.11 and 14.32, confirming an offensive edge and increased likelihood of goals. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over, particularly the 1.5 line, therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the value play.

Cruz Azul led at the break in 11 matches (58%) and scores an average of 1.16 goals by half-time compared to Guadalajara’s 0.58 (scoredAVGHT_home 1.16 vs scoredAVGHT_away 0.58); additionally, as many as 11 home goals were scored in the 31–45 minute window, indicating strong pre-break actions. Over the full match Cruz Azul has a seasonal goals average of 2.16 versus the visitors’ 1.37, higher xG 1.92 vs 1.50 and more shots on target 6.16 vs 4.11, which translates into a 63% win rate at home vs 47% for the away side. Moreover, the hosts concede only 0.37 goals by half-time and have 79% of matches HT with a clean sheet (concededAVGHT_home 0.37; seasonCSPercentageHT_home 79%), while Guadalajara concedes 0.63 goals by half-time, so Cruz Azul’s advantage in the first half is clear. Considering this, the most consistent signal is 1/1 (49% in the projection), whereas scenarios with a draw at half-time or a turnaround appear less likely.