Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United: match statistics

Crystal Palace have shown better form in the last 5 matches: 3 wins and 2 draws (PPG 2.2), scoring 8 and conceding only 2, while Newcastle have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (PPG 0.8), scoring 6 and conceding as many as 13. In terms of chance quality the home side hold a small edge in xG — 1.49 xG at home versus 1.44 xG for Newcastle away — and they average 13.67 shots (3.87 on target) per game compared to 11.8 shots (3.8 on target) for the visitors. Defensively Palace look stronger in the short term: they concede 1.2 goals on average at home and have 40% clean sheets, whereas Newcastle concede 1.27 away and have shipped 13 goals in their last five matches. Season-long metrics show Newcastle have scored more goals this season (44 vs 33) and enjoy higher possession (53% vs 48%), but these advantages do not offset their poor form and defensive issues. Considering Palace’s stability in results, the xG edge and the higher shot volume for the hosts, I forecast a Crystal Palace win; suggested probabilities are 50% home, 30% draw and 20% away.

I project BTTS - Yes as more likely: Crystal Palace failed to score in only 6% of matches (so they score in ~94% of games) and have a season BTTS rate of 75%, while Newcastle have a season BTTS of 53% and a season goals-per-game average of 1.0. In the last 5 matches Palace scored 8 and conceded only 2 (avg 1.6 scored and 0.4 conceded), whereas Newcastle conceded 13 in five matches (2.6 per game), which strongly increases the likelihood the visitors will concede at least once. The away side fail to score in 40% of season games, but in the short term they have BTTS 80% and average xG 1.31 in the last 5, so they can find the net. Palace at home generate xG 1.7 and 5.56 SOT with a 13% conversion, while Newcastle have xG 1.44 and 3.8 SOT with an 8% conversion, which favors the hosts as the primary source of goals. Based on this I assign BTTS - Yes a 66% probability and No 34%.

xG analysis shows Crystal Palace with xG_for 1.70 and Newcastle 1.44, totaling xG 3.14, which suggests close to 3 goals in the match. Seasonally Over 1.5 occurs in 94% of Palace’s matches and 53% of Newcastle’s, while Over 2.5 appears in 75% of Palace’s fixtures and 53% of Newcastle’s, historically favoring Over 1.5 and 2.5. Palace averages 5.56 shots on target with a conversion rate of 13% versus Newcastle’s 3.80 and 8%, translating into higher xG and attacking potential for the hosts. In the last 5 matches Palace scored 8 and conceded 2, whereas Newcastle conceded 13 in their last 5, further increasing the likelihood of goals. On this basis I recommend Over as the primary side and select the 1.5 line (strongest signal, estimated probability ~90%), with Over 2.5 also an attractive option (~72%).

I favor a Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of draw at the break and home win (X/1), because Crystal Palace clearly outperforms Newcastle in the second half: they average 1.06 goals after the break versus 0.27 for Newcastle, and 94% of Palace’s matches feature at least one goal after half-time (compared to 53% for the visitors). Although the hosts have led at the break in 6 matches this season (38% of games), their goals frequently come after the interval — Palace have scored 10 goals in minutes 76–90 while Newcastle have only 2 in that period. Full-time metrics also support a home victory: Palace average 1.81 goals per match with an xG of 1.70, whereas Newcastle record 1.00 goal and xG 1.44, and the home win rate is 50% versus 27% for away wins. Additionally, Palace generate more high-quality opportunities (5.56 shots on target and 14.5 shots on average) than Newcastle (3.8 and 11.8), which increases the likelihood of breaking the draw in the second half. In the last 5 matches Palace led at half-time in 60% of cases (3 of 5) and Newcastle in 40% (2 of 5), confirming that the hosts have the form to produce a turnaround after the break.