Csákvári TK vs Kozármisleny: match statistics

Csákvári TK have a home advantage: they average 64% possession, 5 shots on target and create chances worth 1.40 xG. Kozármisleny concede as many as 3 goals per away match, while their average xG against stands at 2.25, highlighting serious problems in limiting opponents’ chances. The hosts score an average of 1 goal at home and have never failed to find the net in a home match, whereas the visitors score just 0.5 goals away from home and fail to score in 50% of their matches. Both teams have lost two league matches so far, but Csákvári TK have a significantly better home goal difference of -1, compared with Kozármisleny’s -5 away from home. The visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches overall, but two consecutive away defeats and a weak defensive record on the road point towards a narrow home win.

The BTTS - Yes pick has moderate support, primarily based on Kozármisleny’s current form, with both teams scoring in 80% of their matches over the last five rounds. Both sides are also showing clear defensive problems: Csákvári TK conceded an average of 1.2 goals in their last five matches, while Kozármisleny conceded 1.8, with xG against figures of 1.58 and 1.81 respectively. The hosts scored only 0.8 goals per match during this period but created chances worth 1.19 xG, while their opponents have failed to keep a clean sheet in their away matches so far. Kozármisleny average 1.4 goals across their last five appearances and register an average of 4 shots on target, increasing the chances of exploiting the hosts’ weaker defence. The signal is not particularly strong, as Csákvári TK’s BTTS rate stands at just 40% across their last five matches, but the high league-wide level of 69% and the defensive numbers of both sides slightly support a scenario in which each team scores.

Data from the current season is very limited, so greater weight should be given to the last 5 matches: Csákvári’s games averaged 2.0 goals, while Kozármisleny’s averaged as many as 3.2. During this period, Kozármisleny scored 1.4 goals per match and conceded 1.8, whereas the hosts scored 0.8 and conceded 1.2. The visitors went over the 2.5-goal line in each of their last five matches, while both teams scored in 80% of those games. The xG figures from the last five matches point to 1.19 for the hosts and 1.20 for the visitors, while the respective defenses allowed 1.58 and 1.81 xG. Over 1.5 remains the strongest selection, as the projected 2.70 goals and Kozármisleny’s offensive and defensive profile clearly support a scenario with at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Kozármisleny win in the match, as Csákvári were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, with an average half-time goal balance of 0.6:0.6. The visitors won three of their last five matches and averaged 1.4 goals, compared with 0.8 for the hosts, which points to a stronger outlook for the full-time result. However, Kozármisleny have been inconsistent at the start of matches: they were trailing at half-time in 60% of their last five games, so a lead for the visitors from the first whistle is not the most likely outcome. Their matches become clearly more open after the interval, averaging 2.2 goals, with at least two goals scored in each of their last five second halves. The hosts scored just 0.2 goals per match after half-time across their last five games, so with the scores level at the break, Kozármisleny have greater potential to decide the match.