CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Levski Sofia: match statistics

Levski Sofia holds a clear statistical advantage: 25 wins this season versus 20 for CSKA 1948, 71 goals scored versus 54, and a better goal difference away (+15 versus +8 for CSKA at home). Offensively Levski averages 1.76 goals per game with xG 1.81, more shots (14.06 vs 12.53) and more shots on target (5.06 vs 4.47), with a slightly higher conversion rate of 13% versus the hosts’ 12%. Defensively the visitors concede 0.88 goals on average away, while CSKA concedes 1.06 at home, despite CSKA having a higher home clean sheet rate (35% vs 24%). In the last 5 matches Levski have scored 7 goals and average 2 points per game (3-1-1), whereas CSKA have 4 goals and average 1.4 points per game (2-1-2), indicating better form from the visitors. Considering the possession advantage (62% vs 51%), higher xG and the superior recent run, I predict an away win for Levski.

Statistical analysis favors the 'no' outcome in the BTTS market: I assess probability at 57% for 'no' and 43% for 'yes'. Main argument is CSKA's home profile — 56% of home matches with a clean sheet and only 33% home matches with BTTS, meaning in over half of their home games the opponent fails to score. Levski away shows 59% BTTS and averages 1.76 goals away, but keeps a clean sheet in only 24% of away fixtures, so their offense is dangerous but not decisive. CSKA at home scores on average 2.28 goals (xG 2.07, 6.39 shots on target) and concedes only 0.56 goals (opponent xG 0.94), which suggests the hosts should score while often shutting out opponents. Combined with league values (BTTS 43% and 69% of matches with clean sheets) and the last 5 games (BTTS 40% for both, goals in last 5: CSKA 4, Levski 7) the statistical balance favors No Goal / clean sheet expected over Goal/Goal.

The xG model projects 1.55 expected goals for CSKA 1948 and 1.38 for Levski (total 2.93), calculated as the home xG 2.07 vs opponents’ conceded xG 1.02 and vice versa 1.81 vs 0.94. Seasonal goal averages are 2.28 for CSKA and 1.76 for Levski, with CSKA conceding 0.56 goals per match and Levski 0.88; hosts average 16.39 shots (6.39 on target) while visitors average 14.06 (5.06 on target), supporting goal potential. A Poisson distribution with mean 2.93 yields probabilities of over 1.5 ≈ 79%, over 2.5 ≈ 56% and over 3.5 ≈ 34%, so the strongest signal is exceeding 1.5 goals in the match. Seasonal over 2.5 rates are 56% (CSKA) and 53% (Levski), above the league average of 43%, confirming both teams’ tendency toward higher-scoring games. For these reasons I recommend backing the Over 1.5 line as the best and safest pick.

CSKA 1948 has strong home metrics: they lead at the break in 44% of home matches, score an average of 0.72 goals by half-time and concede only 0.06 goals in the first 45 minutes. The hosts win 83% of games, have a higher xG per match (2.07 vs 1.81 for Levski) and register more shots (16.39 vs 14.06) and more on target (6.39 vs 5.06), which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead. Second-half statistics also favor CSKA — they average 1.56 goals after the break and win 72% of second halves at home, while Levski has 59% of seasonal matches with both teams scoring and 60% wins in their last five matches. Given CSKA’s very low number of goals conceded before half-time (0.06) and their advantage in xG and shots, the most likely scenario is CSKA leading at the break and the hosts winning ultimately (HT/FT 1/1).