CSKA Sofia II vs Sportist Svoge: match statistics

CSKA Sofia II sit 2nd, while Sportist Svoge are only 16th, with the hosts’ overall season record standing at 6 wins in 10 matches and just 2 defeats. At home, CSKA average 3.5 goals per game, win 75% of their matches and have not failed to score in any home fixture. Sportist Svoge have not won a single away match, have lost 75% of their games and average just 0.25 goals per match, failing to find the net in 75% of away fixtures. The hosts also create significantly more danger, averaging 15 shots and 8.25 shots on target per game compared with 9 and 3.25 for the visitors, while their xG stands at 1.89 versus 1.23 for their opponents. Recent form also favours CSKA, who have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 12 goals in the process, making a convincing home win the most likely outcome.

The seasonal percentage of matches in which both teams scored is low: 33% for CSKA Sofia II and just 25% for Sportist Svoge, compared with 48% across the league. The strongest argument for BTTS - No is the visitors’ weak attack, as they score an average of just 0.25 goals per match and failed to score in 75% of their games. CSKA Sofia II keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches and have conceded only 0.8 goals per game across their last five fixtures. Although Sportist average 1.23 xG, their shot conversion rate is just 3%, which reduces the credibility of a scenario involving an away goal. The last five matches for both teams produced BTTS in 40% of cases each, but it remains more likely that at least one side—primarily the visitors—will fail to score.

The season profiles of both teams clearly point toward a low-scoring outcome: CSKA Sofia II concede an average of 0.83 goals, while Sportist Svoge score just 0.25 goals per match. Sportist’s games have never produced more than 3.5 goals, while this scenario occurred in only 33% of CSKA’s matches. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games, while the visitors have failed to score in 75%, significantly limiting the potential for an open, high-scoring game. Although CSKA have scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches, Sportist have conceded only 5 during this period, and their average xG against stands at 1.23. With the forecast set at 2.00 goals, the Under 3.5 goals bet offers clear value.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a CSKA Sofia II win at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in all 6 of their matches to date, while Sportist Svoge were level at half-time in half of their away games. The opening phase should be cautious: CSKA concede an average of only 0.17 goals before the break, whereas the visitors have not scored a single goal per match during this period. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage should grow, as they score an average of 0.83 goals compared with Sportist’s 0.25, while their second-half average has reached as many as 1.4 goals scored across their last 5 appearances. CSKA are also clearly more effective over the full match: in their last 5 fixtures, they averaged 2.4 goals and won 60% of their matches, whereas Sportist average 0.8 goals and just 20% wins. The visitors have lost 75% of their matches to date, and their 75% rate of games without scoring further supports a later turnaround in the hosts’ favour.