Čukarički vs Novi Pazar: match statistics

Čukarički are in poor overall form, with just 1 win in their last 5 matches and a 5:14 goal difference, but they have won half of their home games and average 1.25 goals per match. Novi Pazar are higher in the table and have collected 7 points from their last five matches compared with the hosts’ 4, while conceding just 4 goals during that period. However, the visitors’ key weakness is their away form: they have not won any of their three away matches, have failed to score in all of them, and have been unable to find the net in 100% of their away games. Čukarički create chances worth 1.40 xG at home, while Novi Pazar’s defence allows opponents 1.87 xG, giving the hosts a genuine chance to end their poor run. Home advantage and the visitors’ exceptionally poor away scoring record slightly favour a Čukarički win, although a draw remains highly probable.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Novi Pazar’s away scoring record: they average 0.0 goals, have failed to score in 100% of such matches, and none of their games have ended with both teams scoring. Čukarički keep a clean sheet in 60% of their home matches, while their home BTTS rate is just 40%, in line with the league average of 40%. Recent results give the visitors some chance of breaking through, as they have averaged 1.0 goal over their last five matches, while the hosts have conceded as many as 2.8 goals per game. At the same time, Novi Pazar have conceded just 0.8 goals per match during this period, which also supports scenarios in which at least one side fails to score. Despite the visitors’ strong attacking indicators—1.77 xG and an average of 6.0 shots on target—their continued lack of away goals clearly points towards a BTTS - No outcome.

The season profile clearly favors a lower-scoring outcome: 80% of Čukarički’s matches and all of Novi Pazar’s games finished with Under 2.5 goals. The visitors have yet to score in their away matches, failing to find the net in 100% of such fixtures, which limits the potential for an open, end-to-end game. Čukarički average 1.4 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches, although their last five games have produced as many as 2.8 goals conceded per match. The high xG figures for both teams—1.76 for the hosts and 1.77 for the visitors—increase the likelihood of two goals, but do not offset the very low frequency of results above 3.5 goals: 20% for the hosts and 0% for the visitors. The strongest signal therefore remains Under 3.5, supported by Novi Pazar’s consistently defensive profile.

Čukarički have a clearly superior season record: they average 1.4 goals per match and win 60% of their games, while Novi Pazar have yet to score, have not won a single match, and have suffered defeat in 67% of their appearances. The hosts led at the break in 40% of their matches, whereas the visitors were trailing at half-time in as many as 67% of cases; additionally, Novi Pazar have not scored a single goal before half-time. Čukarički’s defence kept a clean sheet in 60% of matches, while the visitors failed to find the net in 100% of their games so far. Although the hosts’ recent form has been weaker, with an average of 2.8 goals conceded across their last five matches, their home advantage and the opponents’ attacking weakness provide the strongest support for a lead at the break and a victory at full-time. The 1/1 scenario is therefore the most likely, although a draw at half-time followed by a Čukarički win remains a significant alternative.