Danubio vs Cerro Largo: match statistics

A draw looks the most likely outcome: Danubio have drawn 57% of their home matches, and both teams are winless in their last five games. The hosts have the edge in the quality of chances created—their average home xG is 1.49, compared with Cerro Largo’s 1.28 away from home—but they score just 0.93 goals per match. The visitors are even less effective on the road, averaging 0.67 goals and failing to score in 53% of their away matches. However, Danubio have conceded 8 goals in their last five games, so despite their opponents’ attacking struggles, their defence can hardly be considered reliable. Both teams’ poor finishing and the hosts’ frequent draws point to a closely contested match, likely with few goals.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No—that at least one team will fail to score—is Cerro Largo’s attack: the visitors average 0.67 goals per match and have drawn a blank in 53% of their games. Danubio average 1.2 goals, but their output has fallen to 0.6 goals per game over their last 5 matches, compared with 0.4 for Cerro Largo. Both teams have recently allowed their opponents to score, conceding an average of 1.6 and 1.4 goals respectively, so goals from either side cannot be ruled out. Even so, BTTS - Yes has landed in 53% of Danubio’s matches and just 27% of Cerro Largo’s, while the recent dip in both teams’ finishing tips the assessment towards BTTS - No.

Danubio average 1.2 goals per game, while Cerro Largo average 0.67, pointing to limited scoring potential, particularly for the visitors. Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 87% of matches involving the two teams, and the Over 2.5 goals line was breached only once in each team’s last five games. However, some caution is warranted, as both sides average 1.28 xG, suggesting they create more chances than Cerro Largo’s goalscoring record indicates. With a forecast total of 2.13 goals, Under 3.5 goals is a stronger pick than the lower lines: it allows for a three-goal result and is supported by both teams’ results to date.

A half-time draw is likely, as both teams average 0.33 goals in the first half and fail to score before the break in 67% of matches. In their last five games, each side went into half-time level in 40% of cases. After the break, Danubio have the advantage: they average 0.87 goals, compared with Cerro Largo’s 0.33, while Cerro Largo concede an average of 0.80 goals in the second half. The hosts have won 47% of second halves, while the visitors have won just 20%, pointing to Danubio breaking the deadlock. Neither team having won any of their last five matches increases the risk of a full-time draw, but Danubio’s post-break advantage makes X/1 the most suitable pick.