Danubio vs Nacional: match statistics
Danubio vs Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Danubio played Nacional in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 1 November 2026. Venue: Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Danubio: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Nacional: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Danubio scores 0.82 and concedes 1.26 goals per match. Nacional scores 1.50 and concedes 1.21. League average: 2.38 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Danubio 47%, Nacional 53%. Over 2.5: Danubio 38%, Nacional 56%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Nacional has higher xG: 1.45 vs 1.26. Danubio: 9.8 shots per match, Nacional: 11.2.
Match halves
Danubio: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.32. Nacional: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.88.
Goals by minute
Danubio: 16-30 (7 goals). Nacional: 76-90+ (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.38 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 1-2-2. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 40%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Nacional sit 2nd and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while eighth-placed Danubio have won 3 of 5. The visitors are more clinical away from home, averaging 1.38 goals per match with a 14% shot conversion rate, while the hosts score 1 goal per game at home with a 10% conversion rate. However, Danubio create slightly better chances at home, averaging 1.43 xG compared with Nacional’s 1.32 xG away, and concede 1 goal per match compared with the visitors’ 1.44. This narrows Nacional’s advantage, especially as half of Danubio’s home matches have ended in draws, but the visitors’ 50% away win rate points to an away victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Across the season, both teams scored in 50% of Danubio’s matches and 56% of Nacional’s, providing some grounds to consider BTTS - Yes. The last five matches, however, point to a weaker signal: this outcome occurred in 40% and 20% of their matches, respectively, while the teams conceded an average of just 0.8 and 0.6 goals. Although Danubio have recently averaged 2.0 goals scored and Nacional 1.8, the low number of goals conceded by both sides increases the likelihood that at least one team will fail to score. The hosts’ season xG is 1.57 and the visitors’ is 1.32, so the lean is moderately towards BTTS - No—not a decisive one. BTTS - No means at least one team does not score; it does not necessarily imply a 0-0 draw.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Danubio score an average of 1.61 goals, while Nacional average 1.38, but their opponents concede 1.44 and 1.00 goals per match, respectively, pointing to a moderate total. The teams’ average xG figures are 1.57 and 1.32, but Danubio have generated chances worth just 1.00 xG per match across their last five games. Both defenses have been effective recently: Danubio conceded 4 goals in five matches, while Nacional conceded 3. The 3.5 line is best supported by their season results, with under four goals in 78% of Danubio’s matches and 69% of Nacional’s. Therefore, with a forecast of 2.53 goals, Under 3.5 goals is a stronger pick than taking a side on the more evenly matched 2.5 line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Danubio hold a slight advantage in the season data: they average 1.61 goals compared with Nacional’s 1.38, and their xG is 1.57 versus their opponents’ 1.32. The case for the hosts to lead at the break is supported by their recent first-half form: they led in 4 of their last 5 matches and scored an average of 1.4 goals in those games, while Nacional averaged 0.8. Danubio are likely to maintain their lead, as they average 1.11 goals after half-time over the season, compared with Nacional’s 0.63. However, the 1/1 pick is not a certainty: the visitors have won 4 of their last 5 matches and also led at the break in 4 of them. Despite Nacional’s strong form, the hosts’ attacking edge and effectiveness after the break make 1/1 the most likely single scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Danubio | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nacional is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Danubio · 2.4 pts / match - Nacional
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nacional is 83% better for: goals scored per match.
0.82 goals / match - Danubio · 1.5 goals / match - Nacional
Danubio scores in 56% of matches (19 of 34 matches), while Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 32% (11 of 34 matches).
Nacional scores in 82% of matches (28 of 34 matches), while Danubio keeps a clean sheet in 24% (8 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Danubio
Over / Under - Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Danubio - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 18%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -11 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Danubio
Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Danubio | Liga | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.09 | 2.38 | ▲ 2.71 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 47% | 51% | ▲ 53% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 44% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 24% | 29% | ▲ 32% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 62% | 66% | ▲ 68% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 68% | 73% | ▲ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Danubio 1 - 2 - 2 Nacional. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 40% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Danubio vs Nacional?
The Primera División match finished Danubio 1:2 Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Danubio and Nacional?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Danubio won 1, Nacional won 2 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Danubio vs Nacional?
Danubio score 0.82 goals per game on average and Nacional 1.50. The Primera División average is 2.38 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Danubio's matches and 53% of Nacional's.
What form are Danubio and Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games Danubio have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Nacional 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Danubio vs Nacional?
The statistical background for Danubio vs Nacional — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.