Netherlands - Eerste DivisieStadion De VijverbergData current as of 21 October 2026

De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk: match statistics

Reasoning:

Full analysis and pick in the app

Check the betting analysis, pick, value bet and full reasoning for this match.

Check analysis and pick

De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

De Graafschap play RKC Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie (Netherlands). The match date is 23 October 2026. Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg.

Current form

De Graafschap: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. RKC Waalwijk: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.

Goal statistics

De Graafschap scores 1.27 and concedes 2.27 goals per match. RKC Waalwijk scores 1.82 and concedes 1.45. League average: 3.49 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: De Graafschap 82%, RKC Waalwijk 73%. Over 2.5: De Graafschap 82%, RKC Waalwijk 45%. League level: BTTS 67%, Over 2.5 66%.

xG, shots and style

RKC Waalwijk has higher xG: 1.68 vs 1.53. De Graafschap: 14.3 shots per match, RKC Waalwijk: 14.6.

Match halves

De Graafschap: half-time lead 9%, second-half goals 0.55. RKC Waalwijk: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 1.18.

Goals by minute

De Graafschap: 31-45+ (4 goals). RKC Waalwijk: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

Eerste Divisie: 3.49 goals per match, BTTS 67%, Over 2.5 66%.

Head-to-head

Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 5.50, BTTS 100%.

Before the match

1X2 odds

(2.34)
(3.75)
(2.55)

Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.27Goals scored / match1.82
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
2.27Goals conceded / match1.45
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
54%Average possession50%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
4.36Shots on target / match5.36
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

14.27Shots per match14.64
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
4.36Shots on target5.36
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
8.9%Shot conversion12.4%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
54%Possession50%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.53xG for1.68
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.9xG against1.38
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

Shooting quality

De Graafschap: AttackingRKC Waalwijk: Attacking
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
Accuracy (shots on target)31%37%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.110.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.290.34

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

De Graafschap is 40% better for: last-5 form.

1.4 pts / match - De Graafschap · 1 pts / match - RKC Waalwijk

De Graafschap
LWDWL
Season result split
27% W18% D55% L
Season (W-D-L)
3-2-6
1.00 pts / match · goal difference -11
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-1-2
1.40 pts / match
Record at home (W-D-L)
2-0-3
Last 5 at home
2-0-3
LLLWW
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.4Goals conceded: 1.4xG: 1.50Opponent xG: 1.99BTTS: 80%Over 2.5: 80%
RKC Waalwijk
WLDLD
Season result split
27% W55% D18% L
Season (W-D-L)
3-6-2
1.36 pts / match · goal difference +4
Last 5 (W-D-L)
1-2-2
1.00 pts / match
Record away (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Last 5 away
1-2-2
DDWLL
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.6Goals conceded: 1.6xG: 1.53Opponent xG: 1.35BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 40%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

RKC Waalwijk is 43% better for: goals scored per match.

1.27 goals / match - De Graafschap · 1.82 goals / match - RKC Waalwijk

RKC Waalwijk is 57% better for: goals conceded per match.

2.27 goals / match - De Graafschap · 1.45 goals / match - RKC Waalwijk

De Graafschap scoring profile: very strong

De Graafschap scores in 91% of matches (10 of 11 matches), while RKC Waalwijk keeps a clean sheet in 9% (1 of 11 matches).

RKC Waalwijk scoring profile: very strong

RKC Waalwijk scores in 82% of matches (9 of 11 matches), while De Graafschap keeps a clean sheet in 9% (1 of 11 matches).

14Goals scored (season)20
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
25Goals conceded (season)16
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
3.55Average goals in match3.27
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
7Goals scored (last 5)8
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
7Goals conceded (last 5)8
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

How often they score at least...

91%1 goal82%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
36%2 goals45%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
0%3 goals18%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
0%4 goals18%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

How often they concede at least...

91%1 goal91%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
64%2 goals45%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
27%3 goals9%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
27%4 goals0%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

67%
League average

Goal patterns

64%BTTS at half-time9%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
9%BTTS in both halves0%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
18%Scored in both halves18%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

BTTS and goal count

73%Min. 3 goals and BTTS36%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
9%Min. 3 goals without BTTS9%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
80%BTTS - last 560%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

1st half

100%Min. 1 goal before half-time82%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
73%Min. 2 goals before half-time18%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
18%Min. 3 goals before half-time18%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

2nd half

64%Min. 1 goal after half-time100%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
45%Min. 2 goals after half-time45%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
36%Min. 3 goals after half-time36%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

Match halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

RKC Waalwijk is 74% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

0.73 pts / match - De Graafschap · 1.27 pts / match - RKC Waalwijk

De Graafschap - half-time state
9% leading45% draw45% trailing
RKC Waalwijk - half-time state
36% leading18% draw45% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

0.73Points per match (1st half)1.27
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
0.73Goals scored (1st half)0.64
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.18Goals conceded (1st half)0.55
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.91Average goals (1st half)1.18
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
9%Clean sheet before half-time45%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
27%No goal before half-time64%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

After half-time (2nd half)

1.18Points per match (2nd half)1.91
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
0.55Goals scored (2nd half)1.18
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.09Goals conceded (2nd half)0.91
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
1.64Average goals (2nd half)2.09
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
55%Clean sheet after half-time36%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk
64%No goal after half-time36%
De GraafschapRKC Waalwijk

De Graafschap - second-half results

27% W36% D36% L
8
Half-time points
8
Half-time goals
-5
Goal difference (1st half)
13
Second-half points
-6
Goal difference (2nd half)
0.73
PPG before half-time
Lead holding300%

Leads at half-time in 9% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time-0.1

Defence stays stable across the full match.

RKC Waalwijk - second-half results

64% W0% D36% L
14
Half-time points
7
Half-time goals
+1
Goal difference (1st half)
21
Second-half points
+3
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.27
PPG before half-time
Lead holding75%

Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 27%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.

Defence after half-time+0.4

Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

De Graafschap - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match0.801.60
Goals scored / match0.60.8
Goals conceded / match1.00.4
Average goals in match1.61.2
1 goal100%60%
2 goals40%40%
3 goals20%20%
Clean sheet20%60%
No goal40%60%
Goal difference-2+2
Half-time: 20% leading - 20% draw - 60% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 40% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 40% - Half-time goals total: 3
RKC Waalwijk - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.401.20
Goals scored / match0.80.8
Goals conceded / match0.41.2
Average goals in match1.22.0
1 goal80%100%
2 goals20%40%
3 goals20%40%
Clean sheet60%20%
No goal60%60%
Goal difference+2-2
Half-time: 40% leading - 20% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 0% draw - 60% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 0% - Half-time goals total: 4

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

De Graafschap
ScoredConceded
2
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
7
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.

RKC Waalwijk
ScoredConceded
2
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
6
61-75
8
2
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

3.40
Estimated goals
attack vs opponent defence
1.4 : 2.0
Estimated goal split
home : away
98%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
78%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
+61%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
75%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
2%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 50 matches
2-3
Most common goal range
attack vs defence on both sides

De Graafschap

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.37
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.63
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+3.1 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.26
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
-0.37
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
65%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
148%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.40
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
-0.2
Late goals
14% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 14% come in the first quarter-hour.
14%

RKC Waalwijk

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.30
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.07
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-5.1 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
+0.14
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
-0.07
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
119%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
74%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
-0.36
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.5
Late goals
40% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 10% come in the first quarter-hour.
40%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eerste Divisie).

Teams vs league

De GraafschapLigaRKC Waalwijk
Average goals in match• 3.553.49▼ 3.27
Both teams scored▲ 82%67%▲ 73%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▲ 82%66%▼ 45%
Clean sheets▼ 9%17%▼ 9%
Goal before half-time▲ 100%82%• 82%
Goal after half-time▼ 64%84%▲ 100%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

3.49
Average goals per match
67%
Both teams scored
66%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
17%
Clean sheets
1.96
Home goals / match
1.53
Away goals / match
+28%
Home attack advantage
+22%
Home defence advantage
+26%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
82%
1 goal
48%
2 goals
22%
3 goals
5%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
84%
1 goal
53%
2 goals
30%
3 goals
15%
4 goals

Head-to-head

Recent meetings (2): De Graafschap 1 - 0 - 1 RKC Waalwijk. Average goals 5.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.

BV De Graafschap
2 : 4
RKC Waalwijk
RKC Waalwijk
1 : 4
BV De Graafschap

FAQ

When do De Graafschap and RKC Waalwijk play?

De Graafschap face RKC Waalwijk on 23 October 2026 in Eerste Divisie at Stadion De Vijverberg. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.

What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and RKC Waalwijk?

In the last 2 head-to-head matches De Graafschap won 1, RKC Waalwijk won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 5.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.

What do the goal statistics show before De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk?

De Graafschap score 1.27 goals per game on average and RKC Waalwijk 1.82. The Eerste Divisie average is 3.49 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 66% of games. Both teams score in 82% of De Graafschap's matches and 73% of RKC Waalwijk's.

What form are De Graafschap and RKC Waalwijk in?

Over the last 5 games De Graafschap have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and RKC Waalwijk 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk?

Here you can check the pre-match numbers for De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.