Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal: match statistics

Deportivo Alavés have looked very solid at home, winning their only home match so far 3-0, while averaging 18 shots and 8 shots on target per game. The hosts are also creating better chances, as reflected by an average xG of 1.96 compared with Villarreal’s 1.66 away from home, while their xG conceded stands at just 0.78. Villarreal score an average of 2 goals away from home, but also concede 2 per match and have failed to keep a clean sheet, with an xG against of 1.81. Alavés remain unbeaten in their last 5 matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws with a 9:3 goal difference, whereas Villarreal have conceded as many as 8 goals during this period. The visitors have drawn both of their away matches so far, making a draw a realistic outcome, but Alavés’ defensive advantage and superior chance-creation quality point towards a home win.

The case for goals at both ends is supported by recent results: BTTS occurred in 60% of Alavés’ last five matches and in 80% of Villarreal’s games. During this period, Alavés averaged 1.8 goals scored per match, while Villarreal conceded 1.6, with an average xG against them of 1.47. Villarreal also has offensive arguments, creating an average of 1.84 xG and scoring 1.6 goals, while Alavés allowed opponents just 0.94 xG. However, the home side’s defence was solid, conceding an average of only 0.6 goals across five matches, so the BTTS scenario does not have a decisive edge. Nevertheless, the combination of Alavés’ strong home attacking output in their latest run and Villarreal’s weaker defence gives a slightly higher probability that both teams will get on the scoresheet.

Alavés’ latest form points to 1.8 goals scored per match across their last five games, while Villarreal have conceded an average of 1.6 goals over the same period. Villarreal are also creating plenty of chances, recording an xG of 1.84 compared with Alavés’ 1.44, raising the combined projection to 2.65 goals. At least 3 goals were scored in four of Villarreal’s last five matches, while both teams scored in 80% and 60% of their respective matches. However, Alavés’ defence remains solid, having conceded only 3 goals in their last five appearances and allowing an xG of 0.94, which makes the 2.5 line less attractive. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the visitors’ attacking potential and the hosts’ good finishing significantly reduce the risk of a match ending with no more than one goal.

A draw at half-time followed by an Alavés victory is the most likely outcome, as Villarreal were level at the break in 75% of their recent matches, while Alavés did not trail at half-time in any of those games. The hosts conceded an average of 0.0 goals before the break and scored 0.8, pointing to a well-protected and fairly even opening. Across their last five matches, Alavés averaged 1.8 goals scored and conceded just 0.6, clearly outperforming Villarreal, who scored 1.6 goals but also allowed 1.6. After the break, Alavés averaged 1.0 goal, compared with just 0.75 for Villarreal, giving the hosts stronger grounds to decide an even match in the second half. In addition, Alavés were unbeaten in their last five games, with 60% ending in draws, further supporting the scenario of a cautious opening followed by a late turnaround in the hosts’ favour.