Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool FC Montevideo: match statistics

Deportivo Maldonado are third in the table and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while fifth-placed Liverpool Montevideo have recorded 3 wins over the same period. The hosts win 69% of their home matches, compared with 44% of the visitors’ away games, which favors Deportivo. Their edge is also evident in their scoring numbers: Deportivo average 1.81 goals at home and convert 14% of their shots, versus Liverpool’s 1.38 goals and 12% away from home. The hosts concede just 0.63 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 56% of games, while the visitors concede an average of 1 goal away. The gap in the quality of chances created is narrow—xG stands at 1.56 to 1.45—so a draw remains a realistic outcome, although the overall statistical picture points to a Deportivo win.

The strongest signal points to at least one team failing to score: Deportivo Maldonado kept a clean sheet in 60% of its matches and conceded just 2 goals across its last 5 games. Both teams scored in 33% of the home side’s matches, compared with 56% of Liverpool Montevideo’s, highlighting the teams’ clearly different profiles. The visitors have attacking credentials, averaging 1.38 goals per match and failing to score in only 19% of their games, while the hosts concede an average of just 0.93 goals. Deportivo could also find the net against an opponent that concedes an average of 1.00 goal per match, but the hosts themselves failed to score in 33% of their matches. So, despite both sides having a chance to score, the home side’s solid defence and the low rate of matches in which both teams score give a slight edge to BTTS - No. This means at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 73% of Deportivo Maldonado's matches and 81% of Liverpool Montevideo's games. Both teams average around 1.3–1.4 goals scored per match this season, while Deportivo concede just 0.93 goals per game, limiting the likelihood of a very high-scoring result. The hosts' last 5 matches produced an average of 1.8 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded, although the visitors also scored 1.8 goals per game over the same period. Therefore, the projected total of 2.45 goals leaves room for a match with two or three goals, but points to a clearer edge for Under 3.5 than for Under 2.5 goals.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome: Deportivo Maldonado went into the break level in 80% of their league matches this season and have not conceded before half-time in their last five games. Liverpool Montevideo did lead at the break in 50% of their league matches this season, but the hosts’ recent defensive solidity limits the weight of that signal. After the break, the advantage shifts towards Deportivo, who have won the second half in 4 of their last 5 matches and scored an average of 1.4 goals in those halves. Liverpool have won the second half in only 1 of their last 5 games, conceding an average of 0.8 goals after the break over that period. Therefore, a half-time draw followed by a home win is the strongest single HT/FT scenario, although the 17% probability assigned to a draw at full-time reflects how evenly matched the teams have been over the season as a whole.