Derby County vs Middlesbrough: match statistics
Middlesbrough sits 2nd in the table, displaying significantly superior form and statistics compared to Derby County (14th place). The visitors hold the advantage across all key metrics: a higher away win rate (42% vs 25% for the hosts at home), a superior goal difference (+3 vs -3), higher average xG (1.58 vs 1.3), and possession dominance (57% vs 47%). In their last five matches, Derby has averaged just 1.2 points per game with only one win, whereas Middlesbrough maintains solid form with 1.4 points per game. The hosts suffer from poor scoring efficiency at home (11% conversion) and concede an average of 1.5 goals. Given the visitors' offensive potential (averaging 1.42 goals away), a Middlesbrough victory emerges as the most probable scenario.
Derby County vs Middlesbrough: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Derby County played Middlesbrough in Championship (England). The match was played on 1 January 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Derby County: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Middlesbrough: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Derby County scores 1.38 and concedes 1.38 goals per match. Middlesbrough scores 1.38 and concedes 1.04. League average: 2.60 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Derby County 75%, Middlesbrough 58%. Over 2.5: Derby County 50%, Middlesbrough 50%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Middlesbrough has higher xG: 1.56 vs 1.12. Derby County: 9.5 shots per match, Middlesbrough: 14.1.
Match halves
Derby County: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.75. Middlesbrough: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.71.
Goals by minute
Derby County: 46-60 (8 goals). Middlesbrough: 31-45+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.60 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Middlesbrough sits 2nd in the table, displaying significantly superior form and statistics compared to Derby County (14th place). The visitors hold the advantage across all key metrics: a higher away win rate (42% vs 25% for the hosts at home), a superior goal difference (+3 vs -3), higher average xG (1.58 vs 1.3), and possession dominance (57% vs 47%). In their last five matches, Derby has averaged just 1.2 points per game with only one win, whereas Middlesbrough maintains solid form with 1.4 points per game. The hosts suffer from poor scoring efficiency at home (11% conversion) and concede an average of 1.5 goals. Given the visitors' offensive potential (averaging 1.42 goals away), a Middlesbrough victory emerges as the most probable scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Derby County | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Middlesbrough is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Derby County · 1.4 pts / match - Middlesbrough
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Middlesbrough is 33% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.38 goals / match - Derby County · 1.04 goals / match - Middlesbrough
Derby County scores in 92% of matches (22 of 24 matches), while Middlesbrough keeps a clean sheet in 25% (6 of 24 matches).
Middlesbrough scores in 75% of matches (18 of 24 matches), while Derby County keeps a clean sheet in 17% (4 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Derby County
Over / Under - Middlesbrough
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Derby County is 17% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.46 pts / match - Derby County · 1.25 pts / match - Middlesbrough
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Derby County - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 33%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Middlesbrough - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Derby County
Middlesbrough
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Derby County | Liga | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.75 | 2.60 | ▼ 2.42 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 75% | 59% | • 58% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 50% | 51% | • 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 23% | ▲ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 73% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 77% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Derby County 0 - 0 - 1 Middlesbrough. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Derby County vs Middlesbrough?
The Championship match finished Derby County 1:0 Middlesbrough. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Derby County vs Middlesbrough?
Derby County score 1.38 goals per game on average and Middlesbrough 1.38. The Championship average is 2.60 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 75% of Derby County's matches and 58% of Middlesbrough's.
What form are Derby County and Middlesbrough in?
Over the last 5 games Derby County have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Middlesbrough 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Derby County vs Middlesbrough?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.