Derby County vs Swansea City: match statistics

Swansea City sit 7th, while Derby County are 17th, and the current form clearly favours the visitors: Swansea have won 3 of their last 5 matches and collected 10 points, compared with Derby’s mere 1 point. The hosts have conceded as many as 10 goals in their last five games, whereas Swansea have allowed opponents just 2 goals over the same period. Away from home, Swansea have won every match so far, conceding an average of 1 goal and allowing opponents an xG of 0.75, while Derby concede an average of 2 goals at home with an opposition xG of 1.88. Derby attempt more shots—15 per match compared with Swansea’s 7—but the visitors are far more clinical, converting 29% of their attempts compared with 13% for the hosts. Swansea’s advantage in possession, 59% to 36%, along with their more stable defence, makes them favourites to secure an away win.

Swansea have conceded just 2 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while their average xG allowed to opponents is only 0.83. Derby are on a poor winless run, with 6 goals scored and 10 conceded in their last 5 appearances, although they averaged 1.2 goals per match during this period. The hosts recorded BTTS in 100% of their last five matches, but Swansea saw this outcome in only 20% of games, indicating a strong chance that one side will fail to score. The visitors can be effective, having averaged 2.0 goals per match in the season data, while Derby have allowed opponents an xG of 1.67 over their last five matches. However, Swansea’s solid defensive record remains the strongest signal, making BTTS - No the more likely outcome, meaning that at least one team will fail to score.

Derby have averaged 1.2 goals scored and as many as 2.0 conceded over their last five matches, while Swansea have scored 1.0 goal and allowed opponents just 0.4 goals. The hosts have created chances worth an average of 1.61 xG, but Swansea’s defense has limited opponents to just 0.83 xG, which lowers Derby’s projected goal tally. Swansea, in turn, have 1.05 xG in attack compared with 1.67 xG conceded by Derby, so the visitors should have a realistic chance of scoring at least one goal. The total goals projection of 2.43, combined with the fact that neither team has recorded a match with at least 4 goals in the current data, clearly supports Under 3.5 goals.

Swansea are showing clearly superior current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 2.0 points, won 60% of their games, and conceded just 0.4 goals per match, whereas Derby lost 80% of their games and allowed opponents to score 2.0 goals on average. The Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of a draw at the break is supported by the fact that Swansea were level after 45 minutes in 40% of their recent matches, while their average number of first-half goals conceded is just 0.4. After the break, the visitors have not lost any of their last five second halves, keeping a clean sheet in 100% of them, while Derby scored only 0.25 goals and conceded 1.0 during that period. Swansea’s defensive advantage is also reflected in their xG against opponents, at 0.75 compared with Derby’s 1.27. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by an away win at the final whistle (X/2).