Derby County vs Wrexham: match statistics
Derby County vs Wrexham: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Derby County played Wrexham in Championship (England). The match was played on 10 October 2026. Venue: Pride Park Stadium. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Derby County: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Wrexham: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Derby County scores 0.88 and concedes 1.75 goals per match. Wrexham scores 1.13 and concedes 1.50. League average: 2.88 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Derby County 50%, Wrexham 63%. Over 2.5: Derby County 63%, Wrexham 50%. League level: BTTS 69%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Derby County has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.24. Derby County: 12.3 shots per match, Wrexham: 10.8.
Match halves
Derby County: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.38. Wrexham: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.63.
Goals by minute
Derby County: 16-30 (3 goals). Wrexham: 46-60 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.88 goals per match, BTTS 69%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Wrexham have the edge over their last five matches, earning 8 points compared with Derby County’s 4. The hosts are still without a home win, losing 3 of their 4 matches and conceding an average of 2 goals per game; the visitors have lost only 1 of their 4 away fixtures. Derby create chances at home worth an average xG of 1.64, higher than Wrexham’s away xG of 1.17, but score just 0.75 goals per game with a 6% shot conversion rate. Wrexham average 1 goal away from home, with a 10% conversion rate, and Derby’s defensive issues strengthen the case for the visitors. However, Wrexham’s two draws in four away games and Derby’s failure to score in half of their home matches mean a draw remains a realistic outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Derby have seen both teams score in 100% of their home matches, but this scenario occurred in only 25% of Wrexham’s away games. The visitors failed to score in 50% of their away fixtures, a significant argument for at least one team potentially finishing the match without a goal. On the other hand, Derby average 1.25 goals at home, while Wrexham concede 1.75 goals away, making a home goal a realistic prospect. In the teams’ last five matches, both sides scored in 40% of games, and Derby averaged just 0.8 goals over that period. Therefore, despite the strong signal from Derby’s home results, it is slightly more likely that at least one team will fail to score (BTTS - No).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: none of Derby’s home matches and only 25% of Wrexham’s away matches went over this line. I expect around 2.55 goals, as Derby average 1.25 goals scored at home and Wrexham 1.00 away, although the visitors concede an average of 1.75 goals. The xG data also point to a moderate number of chances: the hosts average 1.32 at home, while the visitors average 1.17 away. Derby’s last five matches have averaged 2.2 goals, compared with 2.8 in Wrexham’s games; this supports Under 3.5, while still allowing for three goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Wrexham led at the break in 2 of the 4 matches analysed, while Derby went into half-time trailing in 2 of 4, pointing to an early lead for the visitors. The balance of play could shift after the break: Derby average 0.75 goals in second halves, while Wrexham concede 1.25. The hosts have not lost the second half in any of their 4 matches, whereas the visitors have lost it twice. Since both teams drew 2 of their 4 matches, the most likely single scenario is Wrexham leading at half-time and the match ending in a draw (HT/FT: 1/X).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Derby County | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Wrexham is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Derby County · 1.6 pts / match - Wrexham
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Wrexham is 28% better for: goals scored per match.
0.88 goals / match - Derby County · 1.13 goals / match - Wrexham
Wrexham is 17% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.75 goals / match - Derby County · 1.5 goals / match - Wrexham
Derby County scores in 63% of matches (5 of 8 matches), while Wrexham keeps a clean sheet in 25% (2 of 8 matches).
Wrexham scores in 75% of matches (6 of 8 matches), while Derby County keeps a clean sheet in 13% (1 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Derby County
Over / Under - Wrexham
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Wrexham is 57% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.88 pts / match - Derby County · 1.38 pts / match - Wrexham
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Derby County - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 13%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Wrexham - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 25%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Derby County
Wrexham
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Derby County | Liga | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.63 | 2.88 | ▼ 2.63 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 69% | ▼ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 63% | 63% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 19% | ▲ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 80% | ▲ 88% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 77% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Derby County 0 - 1 - 1 Wrexham. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Derby County vs Wrexham?
The Championship match finished Derby County 1:1 Wrexham. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby County and Wrexham?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Derby County won 0, Wrexham won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Derby County vs Wrexham?
Derby County score 0.88 goals per game on average and Wrexham 1.13. The Championship average is 2.88 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Derby County's matches and 63% of Wrexham's.
What form are Derby County and Wrexham in?
Over the last 5 games Derby County have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Wrexham 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Derby County vs Wrexham?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.