Derry City vs Bohemians: match statistics

I predict an away win (2). The key argument is form: Bohemians have scored 13 goals in their last 5 matches and won 4 of 5 (4-0-1), averaging 2.4 points in that period, whereas Derry have scored only 3 goals in their last 5 and have not won any (0-3-2), averaging 0.6 points. The visitors also have a higher shooting accuracy of 11% versus the hosts' 8% and average 1.8 goals per away match versus Derry’s 1.3 at home, which translates into a better goal difference for the visitors (+9 away vs +2 at home). Derry hold an edge in possession (62% vs 57%) and a higher home xG (1.86 vs 1.69), indicating the hosts create chances but convert them less efficiently. Considering form, finishing quality and the goal difference over the last 5 matches (13 vs 3), I give Bohemians a 60% chance to win, 25% for a draw and 15% for a Derry win.

A strong case for BTTS - Yes is the high seasonal incidence of Derry City matches with both teams scoring — 80% — versus the league average BTTS of 60%. Bohemians have 100% BTTS in their last 5 matches, scoring 13 goals (2.6 avg) and conceding 7 (1.4 avg), showing the visitors in form regularly produce goals at both ends. Against this is the hosts' poor recent form: Derry have only 40% BTTS in their last 5, scored 3 goals (0.6 avg) and seasonally average 1.3 goals for and 1.2 against, indicating issues finishing chances despite an xG of 1.75. Additionally, Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, which reduces BTTS probability, but their season offensive efficiency (1.8 goals per game and xG 1.69) and strong form in the last five push me toward both teams scoring. Considering 80% vs 50% seasonal BTTS, the visitors’ 100% BTTS in the last 5 and the relative xG metrics, I assess the chance of BTTS 'yes' at about 65% versus 35% for 'no'.

Estimated xG gives 1.44 for Derry and 1.39 for Bohemians (average from home xG attack 1.75 and xG conceded by visitors 1.13, and away xG attack 1.69 and xG conceded by hosts 1.09), totaling 2.83 goals — slightly above the league average of 2.71. Derry at home have 80% of matches with at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), Bohemians away 60%; such seasonal baselines (avg ~70%) combined with xG 2.83 increase the probability of Over 1.5, so I rate it at 78%. At the 2.5 line seasonal rates are 50% (Derry) and 60% (Bohemians) — base ~55% — but Bohemians have scored 13 goals in their last 5 matches with xG 1.85 over that period versus Derry’s 3 goals and xG 1.39, which lifts the chance of Over 2.5 to ~62%. The 3.5 line is less likely: Derry at home have 20% of such games, Bohemians away 50% (avg ~35%), and given Derry’s low output in the last 5 matches (3 goals) I give Over 3.5 only 28%. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (78%), supported by xG 2.83 and the fact Derry have both-teams-to-score situations in 80% of matches, plus Bohemians’ offensive form (13 goals in 5), therefore I recommend the Over side on the 1.5 line.

I select the 2/2 scenario (away team leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time) because Bohemians led at the break in 60% of their last five matches and won 80% of those five games, whereas Derry’s last five form is 'ldddl' and they led at the break in only 20%. Season-to-date the away side has a 60% win rate versus 30% for the home side and a better finishing efficiency of 11% vs 9%, despite similar xG: 1.69 (Bohemians) vs 1.75 (Derry), indicating superior conversion by the visitors. Additionally, Bohemians averaged 0.8 goals in the first half over the last five matches compared to 0.2 for Derry, and after the break in that sample they averaged 1.8 goals versus 0.4 for the hosts, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead. However, note that Derry at home have 80% of matches with both teams scoring and draw at Half-Time in 50% of cases, so the X/2 variant (draw HT, away win FT) remains a realistic alternative. On that basis the 2/2 scenario is assigned the highest probability, with X/2 as the second-strongest signal.